2024 NFL Futures Bets: Ryan Noonan's IDP Player Props

Aug 14, 2024

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Do not go where the path may lead; go instead to where there is no path and leave a trail.

That phrase is the impetus for my defensive-centric shift a few seasons ago. When Connor and I set out to take on the prop market roughly seven years ago now, times were different. Sportsbooks weren't nearly as sharp as they are today, nor was the overall community betting into these markets. But times have changed. The content space is saturated with bad betting advice, but there's a lot of good mixed in there as well. Smart folks who, like we do, spend a lot of time on this daily and weekly, and the market is influenced in a way that we can't control. I still believe that good projections and knowledge can produce an edge, which allows us to pass that on to our subscribers, and our records indicate that that's still the case.

But I wanted to do something different. Now, I'm not here to pretend that we invented defensive prop bets. That's the whole point! They were sitting there all along, but no one was looking at them! I jumped in and started looking at them meaningfully and fine-tuning a weekly projection process that's led to some incredible results for myself and our subscribers. After a few years of this, I believe we have a massive edge week to week. Sure, bets are going to lose, and you should run as far away from us at 4for4 if we ever tell you differently. But, all we can control is getting in on a good bet at a good price with a well-thought-out handicap of the situation. And we're going to do that every week of the NFL season.

For now, let's apply that edge to the futures market. You'll mostly find a mix of sack and tackle props here. On a weekly basis, I believe tackles are much easier to project than sacks, but from a season-long standpoint, I think they're close. Sacks are like touchdowns in a lot of ways. It's difficult to drill down to the game where they'll happen, but there are leading indicators that lead to overall sack production, just like target share, end zone targets, and red zone rates lead to touchdowns for offensive talent.

2024 IDP Player Props

Dexter Lawrence (NYG) Over 4.25 Sacks (-110, DraftKings)

Dexter Lawrence might be the most underrated defender in the league. Last season, he ranked third in PFF pass-rush grade—not third among defensive tackles, but third among all players in the league. His 31.1% pass-rush win rate on true passing sets is bonkers for an interior lineman, ranking ahead of Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Aaron Donald for good measure. Lawrence finished the season with 4.5 sacks but with an expected sack rate of 8, which is in line with his 2022 production (7.75 sacks). With Brian Burns in town now as well, the Giants' defensive front is the engine of this team.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1