Saquon Barkley to the Eagles: An Ideal Fantasy Football Fit
The Philadelphia Eagles agreed to a 3-year, $37.7 million contract with star running back Saquon Barkley on Monday, March 12th. The contract includes $26 million guaranteed. Barkley, one of the standouts in a loaded free agent running back class, becomes the fourth highest-paid running back in the NFL behind Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor. Here’s a look at how Barkley’s move to Philly impacts his fantasy football value for 2024.
Get a FREE 4for4 PRO Subscription
Click here for more 2024 Player Profiles!
An Overview of Barkley’s Career
After being drafted with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, Barkley has been one of the most recognizable faces in football from the moment he stepped into the league. He had a historically excellent rookie season, amassing a whopping 2,000 scrimmage yards and cementing himself as a fantasy football star. However, as is the case with seemingly every running back nowadays, injuries hampered Barkley quite a lot. A high ankle sprain and torn MCL limited Barkley to playing in just 28 of a possible 49 games between 2019 and 2021.
Although Barkley is certainly not the same player as his younger self — the main consequence of his injuries is that he has lost some of the explosiveness and home-run hitting ability that made him the No. 2 pick — I believe he still can be an extremely productive player with the Eagles. He has been relatively healthy the past two seasons (four missed games total) and has put up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in both years. There is still reason to believe Barkley has some juice left. Per Next Gen Stats, Barkley ranked fourth among running backs in rushing yards over expectation between the tackles last season despite playing behind a putrid offensive line. This has led to reliable production fantasy-wise: Barkley was the RB5 in fantasy PPG in 2022 and the RB9 last year.
Barkley in the Eagles’ Offense
As far as fit goes, it’s hard to find a more exciting place for Barkley to land than with the Eagles. While Philly had a down year offensively in 2023, their arsenal of weapons is still among the best in the league. Barkley joins a team with perhaps the top offensive line in football — the Eagles ranked third in PFF run blocking grade and first in ESPN’s run block win rate last season. For comparison, the Giants ranked 30th and 31st in those two categories. Although the loss of hall-of-famer Jason Kelce cannot go understated, the Eagles should still continue to have an elite protection unit for Barkley.
The blueprint for Barkley’s workload and role in the Eagles offense should be quite similar to D'Andre Swift’s usage last season. Swift rumbled for 1,049 rushing yards on 229 carries last season en route to a top-24 finish at the position. His production earned him a three-year, $24 million contract with the Bears on Monday, paving the way for Barkley to join the Eagles as their clear RB1. If Swift, someone the Eagles invested essentially nothing in to acquire, was given the lion’s share of the workload in Philadelphia, then I am confident that Barkley will continue to see bellcow usage considering what he is being paid. Assuming he stays healthy, I would pencil him in for at least 275 touches, which could lead to incredible fantasy production behind that offensive line and in a high-flying offense.
Barkley should maintain a relatively high and stable fantasy football floor thanks to his volume and talent, but his ceiling will be dictated by the touchdown department. Thanks to the much-maligned “Tush Push”, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the top red zone rushers in the NFL — he has 38 total touchdowns on the ground since 2021, which ranks first among all players. I also expect Barkley to see a slight dip in receiving volume because mobile quarterbacks like Hurts tend to scramble instead of checking it down. Hurts’ rushing prowess isn’t all bad for Barkley, as he should benefit from the fact that defenses have to pay attention to Hurts out of the backfield, but fantasy managers should know that Barkley may not attain the gaudy touchdown numbers that other elite running backs will have.
Impact on the Giants
Barkley leaves behind a Giants team that has quite a gloomy offensive outlook. They are still tied to Daniel Jones’ massive four-year, $160 million contract, and have few weapons around him now that Barkley is gone. The Giants did sign Devin Singletary, who excelled with the Texans last year, to be their new starter. However, considering how bad this Giants' offense projects to be, Singletary will likely be nothing more than the classic “high volume, low production” running back that we often find drafted in the RB dead zone. I would honestly stay away from any Giants offensive players in fantasy this season save for if they draft an exciting rookie receiver like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze.
The Bottom Line
- Running back contracts have steeply deflated in value of late, but Saquon Barkley’s contract with the Eagles indicates that he will be a focal point of the offense.
- Injuries hampered some of Barkley’s trademark burst and big-play creation compared to his first few years in the league. However, Barkley has still put up extremely solid numbers as he has gotten healthier and still has a few years left of positive fantasy contribution.
- Barkley’s fantasy upside will be closely tied to his touchdown production, and he might need to break off a couple of long touchdowns to make up for some of the short-yardage scores that Jalen Hurts takes away.
- Back in the Big Apple, Barkley’s departure leaves the Giants with very few bright spots on offense and the entire team looks like a fantasy stay-away.
- I would price Barkley as a solid low-end RB1 in fantasy. His injury and touchdown concerns prevent him from being in the upper-most echelon of backs, but he should get more than enough touches to be a star both in real life and on your fantasy team.
