Monotone's Week 1 Best Bets: Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Sep 05, 2024

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, which means it's finally time to finally release some player props. With the sportsbooks releasing props earlier than ever, we will continue to deliver high-value props at widely available numbers. With so many unknown factors, Week 1 presents one of the best opportunities to find value in a very crowded market. Over the last two seasons, I’ve won over 50 units playing on a 0.5u to 1.5u scale, and I look forward to starting the season on the right foot today.

In our first article of the year, I broke down an undervalued Chiefs wide receiver that isn't getting enough love in the market, along with two unders on rotational players that opened with very inflated totals based on name value/projected roles.

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Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Justin Watson o13.5 Rec Yards -110 (365, -115 MGM, -129 C)

Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u

Justin Watson led the NFL in air yards per attempt at 17.5 last season, and I expect him to occupy a similar downfield role once again. With Hollywood Brown ruled out, Watson should seamlessly slide into that WR3 role that he’s played many times over the last couple of years. He also played 90% of preseason snaps with the starters, resulting in some great coach speak from Reid talking about him being involved all year long.

The Ravens' defense will be a very interesting unit, with some turnover on defense with the loss of Mike Macdonald, Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, and Geno Stone. If there is one thing Macdonald was known for, it was his ability to creatively scheme up pressure w/o blitzing. If the Ravens can’t do this at a high level, then I think it benefits these deeper developing routes, given Mahomes should have a more comfortable pocket to pass in. I still think having Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton will have BAL very strong over the middle of the field, and I think Kelce, in particular, will have one of his tougher matchups of the year.

Both he & Worthy occupy a similar role in terms of downfield targets, and I like them both for that reason. Gonna trust the vet to haul in catch on primetime for us! Over in 14/21 total games last year, including against Baltimore, it might not be the sexiest play on the board, but I like the discount. Really, biggest concern is gamescript, to be honest, but I don’t see the Chiefs being able to easily get ahead and consistently run the ball in this one, should be a close matchup.

Playing this for a half unit because there is plenty of variance in play here, will ramp up a little more aggressively after Week 1.