NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 1 Best Bets

Aug 26, 2024

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Fall is in the air, folks! College football kicked off Week 0 last week, preseason games just wrapped up, and we are inching closer to getting to the real deal in the NFL. Where games finally matter, and we find out who lives up to the hype, we get wowed by another unbelievable Mahomes play, and who will finally get the right to sign Brandon Aiyuk (maybe?). All bettors have a clean slate once again, and this year I have the lofty goal of getting everyone that paid for a subscription to +50 units. So strap yourself in and come along for the ride. The season is a marathon, but I'll lay out a few ground rules for how I track and send out bets before we get into it.

I track my picks on my own spreadsheet, but I also track everything through Betstamp. I’ll continue to do so, as Betstamp is what I use as an easier CLV tracker. I have a formula to calculate it, but it's easier to let Betstamp do it. All my bets will be on a scale of 2U-3U system, which will come through as $200-$300 on the Betstamp recaps. Each week I will post the weekly recap in the Discord and on Twitter.

As for the bets themselves, the goal is to get as many people on each bet as possible. This will come in the form of betting only widely available lines at the time of posting to Discord, i.e. all bets should be available at a minimum of two widely used books (think FD, Circa, DK, ESPNBet, Caesars, etc) and another 3rd book that maybe is ‘less available’. By all means, this is something that can be adjusted, so if there are issues here, reach out to me via the 4for4 Discord or Twitter DMs.

Also, please download Discord. I know not everyone wants another app they have to look at, but Discord allows immediate posting with up-to-date lines for immediate action. The articles may lag behind a little, and I want everyone to get the best of the number. I will also tweet when a new pick is entered. Without further adieu, let's get to the part you are all here for:

2024 NFL Week 1 Sides and Totals

NFL Week 1, Bet #1: Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta Under 42 -110 (available at Circa, BetMGM, and BetRivers)

Russell Wilson should get the start for the Steelers in Week 1, despite Mike Tomlin’s best efforts to keep it under wraps until the last moment. Wilson will overall be an upgrade to what Kenny Pickett was last year for the Steelers, but with OC Arthur Smith running the offense, we should expect to see a whole lot of the run, run, pass, punt style of offense. That, combined with Russell Wilson’s increasing desire to limit his Air Yards each year, has the feeling of an offense that is going to drain the clock and punt for field position early and often. This may be one of just a few weeks this season you will see a Russell Wilson-led Steelers game lined in the 40s.

Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 of last year and has missed out on all of the preseason games. The Falcons may ease him back into playing shape in the early parts of the game. The Steelers also have an elite defensive line and run-stopping unit, should the Falcons try to lean on the running game to start things off.

Atlanta also boasts an incredible run-stopping unit that finished 1st overall in 2023 rush EPA/Play and recently added Matthew Judon. This should be a massive mismatch to a Steelers offensive line that, from preseason games and training camp reports, appears to be in disarray. Tackle Dan Moore is flat-out bad, and Broderick Jones is seemingly uncomfortable playing in the right tackle position. This line likely closes at 41 or below.

Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units