Week 10 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 9 Recap: 2-2, -$19 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 21-10, +$968 (assuming $100 units)

Four plays so far this week, all released in our discord yesterday and today. Week 9 was a frustrating week, as we finished 2-2. The winning bets were: Jalen Hurts OVER 17.5 Pass Completions and Kayshon Boutte UNDER 29.5 rec yards

The two losses last week stung. Our first loss was Rico Dowdle UNDER 2.5 receptions. I released this bet before Ezekiel Elliot was shockingly made a healthy inactive. I would not have taken this bet if I had known Zeke would be inactive. Unfortunately, the Rico under was drawing dead before kickoff. The second loss was also frustrating (JK Dobbins UNDER 70.5 Rush Yards), as I expected Vidal to be involved in the backfield. Unfortunately, the Browns were awful, and the Chargers were able to coast to a win. Dobbins ripped off a 34-yard run to go over in the 4Q while up 20-3. I'm not sure why Dobbins, a back with such a lengthy injury history, was running up three scores with less than 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but hey, I'm not a coach; what do I know?

Week 10 NFL Best Bets

Colby Parkinson UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-108) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/7. Only a 42% snap share for Parkinson last week as the Rams other TE, Davis Allen, played a season-high 55% of snaps. Parkinson earned 0 targets last week and has seen only four targets in the last 3 weeks. We should also see Puka closer to full strength here in his 3rd week back from his knee injury.

Tim Patrick UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-111) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/7. In the past two games without Jamo, Patrick has a combined receiving line of 2/12/0. In the weeks leading up to Jamo's Week 7-9 suspension, Patrick ran a route on roughly 50% of Goff dropbacks. Jamo returns this week and should push Patrick back down to only a 50% route participation. On top of Jameson's return, we have seen the Lions expand Kalif Raymond's role starting in Week 6/7, even prior to Jameson Williams' suspension. With the whole supporting cast healthy and facing a Texans team that won't be at full strength to punch back, we will likely see another low-volume Lions passing game, and Patrick is the 5th+ receiving option at this point.

Cortland Sutton UNDER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-111) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/8. Sutton is coming off back-to-back big games against weaker secondaries (CAR and BAL). He draws an extremely difficult matchup here against KC, who gives up the 4th fewest receptions and an NFL-low 851 yards to WRs, per Evan Silva's weekly matchups column. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Chiefs blitz at the league's 5th-highest rate, and Sutton sees a 44% fantasy point reduction and a 29.4% yards per route run (YPRR) reduction against the blitz since the start of last season. Additionally, the Chiefs also deploy two-high safeties at the league's second-highest rate, and Sutton averages 34% less YPRR against two high since the start of last season.

Be sure to get in our Discord as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game) or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here. Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through eight weeks,we have released a total of 158 individual props (53 total entries).

Individual play record of: 92-66 (58.3% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have a 16% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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