Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

This season is flying by and is somehow already halfway over. The good news is I’m on record pace right now, up over 20 units on the season through 9 weeks. I have won 59.38% of my overs and 63% of my unders this year for a total record of 65-40.

Week 9 Review: 8-3 (+4.58 units)

✅Mike Williams U20.5 receiving yards

✅Jerome Ford U28.5 rush yards

✅Jared Goff U20.5 completions

✅Kalif Raymond U20.5 receiving yards

✅Josh Downs O58.5 receiving yards

✅Andrei Iosivas U2.5 receptions

❌Zay Flowers U52.5 receiving yards

✅Gardner Minshew U33.5 attempts

❌Nick Chubb O49.5 rushing yards

✅Tua U251.5 passing yards

❌Javonte Williams under 36.5 rushing

Some of these plays won exactly how I wrote them up, with Minshew getting benched, Goff barely passing the ball, Raymond playing a small role, Mike Williams struggling, and Jerome Ford barely seeing any rushing work. Celebrating the wins are great, but it’s also important to note where I was wrong.

Patrick Surtain and the Broncos pass D did not matter for Zay Flowers, as he went for over 100 yards against them. Javonte Williams also still operated as the clear 1A, with Audric Estime taking work away from Jaleel Mclaughlin instead of Wiliams. I misread that situation. I also got extremely lucky on Tua’s under, winning on the final play of the game because Jayen Waddle ran backward 20 yards. To be fair, Tua only had 98 passing yards well into the 3rd quarter, but that game got spicy quickly, and the Bills scored quickly multiple times. The read still felt right, but we ran very pure to get the win.

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Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets

Lamar Jackson U51.5 rushing yards (-115 DK, fine everywhere else at 50.5)

Jackson picked up a knee injury two weeks ago and barely practiced last week. This resulted in his lowest rushing output of the season with just 4 yards on 3 carries in Week 9. Only one of those was a non-scramble as well, so the coaching staff massively dialed back designed runs.

Non-scramble QB runs by week (s/o fantasy points data):

• Week 9: 1
• Week 8: 6
• Week 7: 6
• Week 6: 9
• Week 5: 8
• Week 4: 5
• Week 3: 12
• Week 2: 3
• Week 1: 6

Now, on a short week and Lamar still missing practice, I can't imagine they go back to calling many designed runs, especially as 6-point favorites at home in a game that probably won't have as many fireworks as last time.

The matchup is techincally "good" for rushing QBs but took Lamar 12 attempts to get 55 rushing yards last time around against Cincy in a game the Ravens were behind nearly the entire time and finished 41-38 in overtime. His median this season is 52 rushing yards regardless, which is where this number comes from, but I don't think that is factoring in the injury nearly enough.

Obviously, taking an under on Lamar isn't for the faint of heart, but I think this is the right time to do it, given the injury and circumstances.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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