Week 11 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 10 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 11.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 11 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles | -6 | -3 | 45.5 | 49 |
| Packers @ Bears | -1 | +2.5 | 44 | 44.5 |
| Jaguars @ Lions | -4 | -10 | 50 | 51 |
| Vikings @ Titans | +1 | +6 | 43.5 | 42 |
| Raiders @ Dolphins | -6 | -7 | 47 | 46 |
| Rams @ Patriots | +4 | +6 | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| Browns @ Saints | +2 | -2 | 42 | 42.5 |
| Ravens @ Steelers | +3 | +3 | 42 | 45 |
| Falcons @ Broncos | +3 | +1 | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | -9 | -7 | 47.5 | 49 |
| Colts @ Jets | -4 | -4.5 | 46 | 43 |
| Chiefs @ Bills | +1 | +1 | 49 | 47 |
| Bengals @ Chargers | +2 | -1.5 | 45 | 44 |
| Texans @ Cowboys | -3 | +6.5 | 49 | 43 |
Week 11 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
Bye Weeks: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
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