Week 12 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 11 Recap: 2-2, -$30 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 25-13, +$1,037 (assuming $100 units)



Week 11 was a 2-2 split. The wins were: Herbert over 30.5 pass attempts and Spears under 28.5 rush yards. The losses were: Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 Receptions and Jared Goff under 28.5 Pass Attempts. Jared Goff was one of my worst beats in a long time… Goff finished with 29 attempts. The Lions were up 36 points at the end of the third quarter, and Goff came out and threw five times to go over. It was just brutal. CMC finished with four catches, one shy of going over. We got the perfect game script for CMC, and it just didn’t come through. The Spears win was sweat-free. Spears had only two carries for two yards and then got hurt. Herbert over 30.5 Pass Attempts was a bit sweaty. The Chargers moved the ball easily in the 1H and pulled away to a big halftime lead, which took the ball out of Herbert's hand. The Bengals' offense in the 2H came alive and made this a battle to the end, which inevitably forced Herbert to pass.

Week 12 NFL Best Bets

Will Levis UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-118) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/23. The Titans come into this game ranking 26th in pass rate over expectation and 27th in neutral pass rate. Per Pat Thorman from ETR, Tennessee's games rank last in combined snaps (117.1). Houston has been really good with Joe Mixon on the ground this year and operates the league's fifth slowest-paced offense. The Texans should be able to lean into the ground game as they are 7.5-point favorites over the Titans. It also helps that the Titans face the "25th-highest opponent neutral pass rate" (Thorman).

Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (-119) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/23. The Chargers are 8th in PROE in the last 4 weeks, a massive shift from what we saw from them in the first half of the season. In these 4 weeks, Herbert has gone over this number 3 times and now gets a matchup against a Ravens defense that is extremely vulnerable through the air. This game also features a 50.5-point total, with the Chargers implied for ~24 points. In a game where we should see a lot of scoring, I'm willing to bet on the uber-talented Herbert to find the endzone through the air at least twice.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-114) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/23. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford eviscerated the Patriots' defense last week, giving up a whopping 10.9 yards per pass attempt. New England ranks 29th in dropback EPA per play allowed and T10 in 20+ yard pass plays allowed. The Patriots' offense has also been throwing more than expected, ranking 8th in PROE over the past four weeks. As long as the Patriots can stay in this game, I think we will see this Dolphins offense show the fireworks we became accustomed to last season.

Be sure to get in our Discord, as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through ten weeks,we have released a total of 179 individual props (60 total entries).

Individual play record of: 108-71 (60.34% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 4, you would have a 32.52% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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