Week 12 IDP Matchups to Exploit & Streaming Options

In this space, the weekly targets will range from individual players and positional groups to entire defensive units. IDP leagues are like snowflakes, so if you have specific questions, jump into our subscriber Discord, find the IDP channel, and tag me with any questions you have. Some of you play in leagues where all of these players are already owned, and some of you play in IDP leagues where only 3-4 players are rostered on each team, so the players listed below might not even be on your radar, so don't be afraid to reach out. Also, don't forget to check out the Waiver Wire column as well.

Sometimes, I'll reference a player who's nearly universally rostered across all IDP leagues, but perhaps that'll help you with a potential start/sit decision you were wrestling with.

Ideally, you drafted a set-it-and-forget-it IDP roster, rendering this column useless to you all season long, but that's not how life works. The Waiver Wire column should help as well, but I want to use this space weekly to highlight some of the best matchup spots on the slate, along with any corresponding defenders who are in line to benefit.

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Week 12 IDP Matchups To Exploit

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Rush

The Buccaneers are in the middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate this season, but this matchup against Tommy DeVito and the Giants is one that needs to be attacked for as long as he's the starting quarterback.

Last season, Tommy DeVito was sacked 37 times, tied with Jared Goff for the 11th most in the league. The only difference is Goff dropped back to pass 524 more times than DeVito. 524! He took five more sacks than Patrick Mahomes did on the year, and that includes the playoffs and Super Bowl, a 619 dropback differential between the two players. I can keep going.

All in all, this boils down to DeVito having a comically high 37.4% pressure-to-sack rate in his limited time as a starter. For context, no starting quarterback in the league this season (min. 120 dropbacks) has a pressure-to-sack rate north of 30%. Interior space-eater Vita Vea leads the team in sacks, but EDGE Yaya Diaby ranks third in PFF's pass rush win rate on the season despite underwhelming sack totals to date. Both players are worth considering this week, even in shallow leagues, due to the favorable matchup. In deeper leagues, take a look at Logan Hall, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and Calijah Kancey.

Danielle Hunter (Houston Texans)

The starting quarterback who's currently carrying the highest pressure-to-sack rate in the league is Tennessee's Will Levis at 29.5%. This week, Levis and company head to Houston to take on Danielle Hunter and the Houston Texans. Hunter is lapping the field in quarterback pressures this season. His 72 pressures are 15 clear of Trey Hendrickson, who ranks second in the league with 57. They're the only two players in the league north of 50, so suddenly, Hunter's 72 really stands out.

There will be other options to consider for Houston this week, like Will Anderson Jr. if he's healthy, but Hunter is the primary focus and better than a coin-flip bet to get 5+ pressures and a sack against Levis and this young offensive line.

Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight (Seattle Seahawks)

Ernest Jones has hit the ground running in the Pacific Northwest. Through three games, Jones has complied 37 tackles as a Seahawk, with at least six solo tackles in each game. This week, Jones and his new running mate, Tyrice Knight, have a sneaky-good matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a slightly below-average matchup in terms of overall tackle volume, but 32.26% of all of the tackles against the Cardinals have come from opposing linebackers, which is the highest rate in the league. I often see raw data referenced to highlight good positions versus team matchups, but I find the percentage of tackles against data to be more useful in projecting future performance.

While Knight is not likely to play an every-down role, he hit 81% of the Seattle snaps last week, finishing with 10 total tackles against the 49ers. He's now produced a solid tackle floor in every game he's played in this season, and the rookie came into the league with an elite tackling profile while in college, leading FBS with 84 solo tackles last season at UTEP.

Kobie Turner (Los Angeles Rams)

Kobie Turner is proving that his rookie run of Robin to Aaron Donald's Batman was no fluke. He has five sacks on the year and is third on the team with 33 quarterback pressures, but he's shown a more consistent tackle floor this season as well, making him a better IDP asset week in and week out.

Turn has six or more combined tackles in four straight games and five of his past six, and this week's matchup against Philadelphia is ripe for him to keep the streak alive. The Eagles are more run-heavy than you think, with a -8% pass rate over expectation on the season (second-lowest in the league), and that's out to -11.6% over the past four weeks, which laps the field. Defensive tackles facing the Eagles have averaged 11.1 tackles per game, making up 17.96% of the total tackle production this season, which ranks as the second-highest rate in the league. The Eagles' secondary is playing outstanding football right now, so I'm expecting a neutral to positive game script for the Eagles offense here, which should keep the ground game churning.

The final element here is the Rams' generous home scorekeeper. Over the past two seasons, 52.86% of the tackle opportunities in Rams home games have been scored with an assisted tackle, which is the third-highest rate in the league and 6.31% above the league average.

Nick Cross (Indianapolis Colts)

Nick Cross battled for playing time in training camp this summer, and now we're in Week 12, and he's fifth in the league in total tackles—not fifth at his position, but fifth in the entire league. Cross leads all defensive backs in tackles this season, living in the box as a hybrid third linebacker in defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's Cover-3 heavy coverage.

Cross is coming off of his worst tackle output of the season against the Jets, who've been stingy to opposing safeties all season long. It also didn't help that the Jets didn't get a first down until two minutes were remaining in the second quarter, killing the tackle upside of all of the Colts along the way. That shouldn't be a problem this week, as the Colts host the Lions high-powered offense.

The Lions have been one of the best matchups for opposing safeties this season, with a highly efficient run game and a quarterback who loves to work over the middle of the field. Jared Goff has targeted the middle of the field on 28% of his pass attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Cross's box-heavy role makes him game script-proof, putting him in line for a monster day.

This is also another spot where the home scorekeeper is on our side. Games in Indianapolis have the fifth-highest assist rate over the past two seasons (50.6%), and they've been consistent as well, topping 48% for three straight seasons.

Tre'von Moehrig (Las Vegas Raiders)

While Nick Cross gets a great matchup against the Lions, the best matchup for opposing safety tackle production is the Denver Broncos. On the season, opposing safety groups have combined for 17.3 tackles per game against Bo Nix and this Broncos offense. That's four more tackles than the league average and 28.64% of all the tackles against Denver this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Moehrig, who posted 10 tackles in his first meeting with Denver this season, has been a strong producer this season after a mid-season role change. After playing deep safety for the majority of his snaps the past two seasons, the Raiders moved him down in the box in Week 4, with an increase in Cover-3 coverage. Last season, Moehrig's snap per tackle rate was fairly pedestrian at 13.33, right around the league-average mark for his alignment. This season, Moehrig is up to 9.16 snaps per tackle, which is elite for a safety and in line with a lot of second-tier linebackers.

Teammate Isaiah Pola-Mao is also a viable play in deep leagues this week, given the matchup, but his alignment is far less ideal than Moehrig, who's a must-start in this matchup at home against the Broncos.