Breakout Receiver Model: Week 15
Welcome back to the breakout receiver model for Week 15 of the NFL season. We are finally past all of the bye weeks, and many of us are now competing for Fantasy championships or, for the less lucky, honing in on our DFS skills, but regardless the breakout model can still help us tremendously, finding the hidden value yet to be uncovered as we near the finish line of the NFL regular season.
As long-time readers of the column know, each week, we use the model to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity, whether that be due to luck, skill, or a variety of the two. With the regular season’s end in sight, we focus less on “buy low” and “sell high” tactics, and simply try to predict strong plays for the week (or weeks) ahead. We’ll add in some DFS values identified by the model alongside our top breakout candidates, as well.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that are typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Last Week's Model-Predicted Hits
- All Premium Content
- The most Accurate Rankings Since 2010
- Expert Draft Picks w/DraftHero
- Highest Scoring Lineup + Top Available Players w/LeagueSync
- ...and much much more
