NFL SGP Picks: Falcons vs. Eagles Parlay for MNF

We've got one last chance at glory with the Atlanta Falcons/Philadelphia Eagles game before we close the book on Week 2. It was a good one, but now is not a time for reflection. We can do that tomorrow. What we need to do now is figure out which boost to use. DraftKings has a No Sweat Touchdown offer as well as a 50% boost. Both options are deadly. I went ahead with the 50% profit boost at FanDuel since they would let me bet $100 instead of the $10 offered at DraftKings. Either way, we're going in. Feels right.

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Monday Night Football SGP - Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles (+480)

Legs One: DeVonta Smith 6+ Receptions

This is the wild one of the group. If/when we cash this, we'll actually feel the money go into our sportsbook accounts. It's a good feeling. The thing is, it's really not that wild. With A.J. Brown sidelined, Smith should be the Eagles' passing game. What's even better is, he's more than capable of carrying the load. We're talking about a Heisman Trophy winner here, people. Just last week, he was targeted eight times and hauled in seven of them. Keep in mind, that was with A.J. Brown running around out there. All we really need to happen here is for the Falcons to put up a fight. When they do, it will give us the game script needed for this thing to get home. We're on to leg two.

Leg Two: Dallas Goedert 4+ Receptions

What I like about this is the books will never see it coming. We already put Smith's receptions in here so why the hell would we combine that with Goedert's receptions? At first glance, it doesn't make sense, but when you really dig in and have a look around, it makes perfect sense. It's basically genius. For starters, Goedert caught four balls last week, so we're not asking him to do anything he hasn't done before. Again, that was with A.J. Brown roaming the secondary. He's not playing tonight. Of course, that's already baked into the number, but we care more about the game script. If we believe we're getting the "DeVonta Smith catches 6+ balls" game script, then we have to think Goedert can get four. It's science.

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Leg Three: Bijan Robinson 4+ Receptions

In the DFS streets, this is called "running it back." All that we're saying by doing this leg is that if the Eagle's passing game is feeding the streets, then the Falcons will likely need to feed guys, too. It's just how football works. Now, obviously, Kyle Pitts and Drake London would need to be involved, but I think the safest way to play this is Bijan's receptions. Atlanta loves to use him as a receiver, as they targeted him 86 times last year. The man was only on the field like 70% of the time! That's love right there. Fast forward to Week 1, and we see that Bijan played 89% of the snaps. He was only targeted five times, but he caught all five. I expect a similar game script for Atlanta tonight, but with more plays. If/when that happens, Bijan will catch at least four balls, and we'll all get paid. Feels right.

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Lines and prices accurate at the time of posting in Discord