Monotone's Divisional Round Best Bets: NFL Playoff Player Prop Bets

After a 4-5 -2.69 Wild Card Weekend, our season total sits +24.06u. Despite a down week It's been a fantastic season, and we still have plenty of opportunity to make up for it in the postseason. We have a loaded slate of games for this Divisional Round Weekend, with plenty of different angles still available. Super excited to bet on my Commanders once again, with one of the highest totals we've seen in recent playoff history. This slate has plenty of great matchups, and I think we see a much better weekend of playoff football. Check out my favorite bets for this weekend's slate below.

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NFL Divisional Round Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown o74.5 receiving yards -113

Amon-Ra St. Brown is already one of the most consistent receivers in the league, and he finds himself in a great matchup against a weak Commanders secondary. If you backed the Commanders last week, you probably hoped that the presence of Marshon Lattimore would stabilize a shaky secondary, but that wasn't the case. Instead, he was immediately targeted, with Mike Evans comfortably winning the matchup. I would expect the Lions to exploit the same weaknesses on defense, and target the struggling Washington cornerback room, which gets extremely weak behind Lattimore.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's Reception % as an outside receiver this year was the highest by any WR in any season since 2000 that saw 50+ Targets (88.6%), via the 33rd team. He’s 3rd among all WRs in QBR when targeted and has shown an ability to do this all while handling incredibly high volume. Brown is already coming in with the 4th-highest receiving yard total of any receiver in the league; I’m not sure why I wouldn’t back him in a game with a 56 total. The last time he faced the Commanders, he had 9 catches, 184 total yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Risk 1.13u to win 1u FD/MGM - playable to 77.5

Lamar Jackson o53.5 rushing yards -110

I don’t see a gamescript where Lamar isn’t heavily involved in the rushing game. If they are leading, they should get him a couple extra designed runs in between Derrick Henry carries to keep defenses guessing, and if they are trialing, the additional dropbacks should be good for additional scramble opportunities. He’s over 54+ rushing yards in 6/7 career playoff games and I expect the heavy usage to continue.

In their first game, they took care of business in a game Lamar really didn't need to run much in, but he still carried the ball 15 times for 81 yards. He had so many carries because they got him involved early and often with planned, designed runs to keep defenses off balance. Because of their strong system, he leads all QBs and is 7th overall in rushing yards before contact.

The Ravens should do everything in their power to keep this game on the ground. The combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson is a living nightmare for opposing linebackers, and Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in their first matchup. Matt Milano is back for the Bills, but he hasn't looked quite 100%, and will face the toughest task in the league.

Risk 1.1u to win 1u -110 DK, -114 FD - 52.5 MGM/365 -110 playable to 56.5

Patrick Mahomes o1.5 Passing TDs -144

Mahomes has 2+ passing touchdowns in 14/18 playoff games, including 8 of his last 10 since 2022. He’s the best quarterback in football, and despite plenty of unenthusiastic regular season play-calling, the Chiefs turn it up in the playoffs. I don’t really trust their ground game when it matters the most (27th ranked YPC); Pacheco hasn’t had the same juice since returning, coming into this game with 43 straight carries without a 10+ yard run. Now he gets a brutal Texans defensive line that should have an advantage in the trenches. In the biggest moments, I think they trust Mahomes to do what he does best, even if this is a lower-scoring environment.

In terms of red zone play-calling, Andy Reid is one of the most creative play-callers in the league, and he has his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Hollywood is back and looks good, Xavier Worthy is breaking out at exactly the right time, and Travis Kelce should take the training wheels off under the bright lights. Rest is important for a veteran team, and coming off the ankle injury, Mahomes should be closer to full strength.

Risk 1u to win 0.69u -144 FD, -145 365, -147 CZR playable to -160

Justice Hill (BAL) Over 2.5 Receptions -110

Justice Hill's passing game work correlates well with the Ravens being in a tightly contest game or trailing game script. The only exception to that this season was his six-target, six-catch game against these Buffalo Bills back in Week 4, where Hill went for 78 yards.

Pass-catching backs have thrived against the Bills this season, who are top-three in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs. I think yards are in play as well (17.5 on DK), but I feel better about his ability to secure three high-percentage targets.

Joint release with Noonan MGM -105, Rivers -107, Builder -112, CZR -117, FD -128 playable to -140

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