NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 3 Best Bets

Sep 17, 2024

Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Anyone who went into Week 2 wanting to bet on big favorites had a rough time this past weekend and even into the Monday Night Football game. Per Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams), NFL underdogs of 6+ points are a perfect 8-0 on the season, and the Falcons covered a spread that opened in the 6+ range but moved to a shade under by the Monday Night Football kickoff.

As for me, I had a pretty poor showing on Week 2 from a betting standpoint. Overall, I went 3-7-1 for -9.59 units. Ugly. The good news, eight of eleven bets made had positive Closing Line Value (CLV), meaning that the market at least agreed with the thought process behind the bets. So what went wrong? We lost the battle with variance and lost hard. The ratio of turnovers between teams we bet on and teams we bet against was nine to four (and eight to three in losing efforts). The Giants and Commanders had 729 yards, typically good for about 48 points, but didn’t go over 43.5 thanks to an injured Giants kicker and seven(!) field goals on six red zone trips from Washington. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Bengals put up 606 total yards, good for about 40 points, as the actual total ended at 51. The Colts coaching staff was the only group of people in the world that were shocked by a Packers rush-heavy approach, as they had nearly 200 yards in just over a quarter of play, with only 40 coming through the air. Halftime adjustments were made and the Packers did not fair as well in the second half on a ‘rush only’ game plan.

There were some good and bad bets made, too. Las Vegas won straight up as an eight-point dog, and Cleveland led wire to wire. On the bad side, the Chiefs lost against the spread but should have also lost the game straight up as well. The Cowboys failed to even sniff 27 points in their shellacking at the hands of the Saints. At the end of the day, I’m not hitting the panic button yet. The first two weeks typically have the most bets from me, and going forward, I should typically be down to a more focused seven to nine bets per week. Week 3 is where I make a major shift to blending 2023 and 2024 player grading data and will increase the shift to 2024 grades over the next seven to eight weeks. With that said, let's get into the bets: