Week 3 NFL Pick' Em & Survivor Pool Picks: Focused on the Present

We were hoping for only one chaotic week in our survivor pools but we’ve now gone 2-for-2. As we dive into Week 3, we’ll kick things off with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from Pool Genius for some analysis as we figure out what to do in our pools.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Denver
Confidence Point Range: 8-10 Points

This matchup features the third-largest spread of the week, but it’s drawing the most attention from public sentiment. Tampa Bay has impressed to start the season, convincingly defeating a struggling Washington team before traveling to Detroit and taming the Lions. Now, the Buccaneers return home to face the 0-2 Broncos in Week 3.

Currently, around 75% of the public is backing Tampa Bay, making Denver an intriguing contrarian play. Given the number of early-season upsets we’ve already seen, this could be the kind of high-upside gamble that helps you gain ground or extend your lead. With a modest confidence point total, taking a shot on the Broncos offers great leverage if it pays off.

Buffalo Bills (-5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Buffalo
Confidence Point Range: 12-14 Points

The Bills have just about every metric in their favor against the Jaguars. Whether you’re looking at yardage, points, completion percentage, third-down conversion, or red zone scoring, Buffalo has the advantage here. It’s a popular play but I like rolling with them here at home.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Arizona
Confidence Point Range: 7-9 Points

The public is split on this one, with a 53-47 pick percentage at the time of this writing. It’s easy to see why, considering that both teams have had their Jekyll and Hyde moments through the early part of the season here. The Lions got by the Rams in OT during Week 1 and then dropped a close game in Week 2 to Tampa Bay. Arizona dropped a close game to the Bills in Week 1 and then trounced their division rivals Rams last week. In Week 2, it was the Marvin Harrison Jr. show in Arizona.

It’s only two weeks, but the underlying metrics all lean towards this being a battle between Arizona’s offensive strength and Detroit’s defensive strength. In those cases, I tend to give the home team with the better offense the edge.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

Path A: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1
Path B: Still Alive (Buffalo W1, Los Angeles Chargers W2)
Path C: Still Alive (Seattle W1, Houston W2)

The Top Options

Two teams are soaking up nearly 50% of the survivor pool picks this week in Tampa Bay and Las Vegas. At the time of this writing, they’re at 23% and 21%, respectively. In theory, they’re even more popular because they don’t have much - if any - future value. In at least five of their next seven games, Tampa Bay will be the underdog. Las Vegas is in the same situation and they get a boost from last week’s victory. They also get a boost from playing the Carolina Panthers this week at home.

For Path B, we’ve used Buffalo and Los Angeles thus far. They wouldn’t really be on our radar this week so we’re in good shape there. Our dilemma here is basically three-pronged. One route would be to burn San Francisco here. They’re 7.5-point favorites despite their injury situation. A second route would be to find it in our hearts to trust Cincinnati against a very bad Washington football team as 9.5-point favorites. The third option would be a coin flip between Seattle and the Jets. They’re both less than a touchdown favorite.

We’re going to roll with the Bengals for Path B. The 9-point spread combined with the fact that they took the Chiefs to the brink last week gives me some hope that Week 1 was an outlier. They’re a solid option in Week 4, as well but their schedule tightens up a bit for the next month or so starting in Week 5.

For Path C, we’re going to roll with the 49ers even though they’re on the road. They have plenty of future value but with pools dwindling, we want to make it through to Week 4 while avoiding the most popular picks. The Jets were in consideration, but with a Thursday Night divisional game, we can hold off. They do host the Broncos next Week so we may head in that direction if we get this entry through to Week 4.

The Bottom Line

After two chaotic weeks in survivor pools, Week 3 brings another opportunity to leverage public sentiment and make strategic picks. PoolGenius’ insights help us navigate the landscape, identifying opportunities like Denver as a high-upside contrarian play while sticking with reliable choices like Buffalo. In survivor pools, staying focused on the present week is key—don’t get caught saving teams for later. Rolling with the Bengals and 49ers offers strong chances to survive and advance. It’s all about balancing risk and reward to outlast the competition.