Week 4 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

Sep 19, 2024

Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.

Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.

Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, which is easier to do once you know the opening number. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 3 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 4.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 4 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.

2024 NFL Week 4 Lookahead Lines
Game	Opening Line	Current Line	Opening Total	Current Total
Cowboys @ Giants	+4.5	+7	44.5	43.5
Saints @ Falcons	-4.5	-1	44.5	46
Rams @ Bears	-1.5	-3	47	42
Vikings @ Packers	-4.5	-2.5	45	42.5
Steelers @ Colts	-0.5	-1	44.5	41
Jaguars @ Texans	-3.5	-5.5	47.5	46
Broncos @ Jets	-6	7.5	42.5	38
Eagles @ Buccaneers	+1.5	+1	47	47
Bengals @ Panthers	+1.5	+7	46	43
Commanders @ Cardinals	-2	-4.5	45	49.5
Patriots @ 49ers	-11.5	-9.5	45	41
Browns @ Raiders	+1.5	+1	43.5	39.5
Chiefs @ Chargers	+3	+4	49	43.5
Bills @ Ravens	-3	-1	47.5	45.5
Titans @ Dolphins	-6.5	-1.5	46	39.5
Seahawks @ Lions	-6	-4	49	48.5

Week 4 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

It matters less early in the season, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
The market is starting to adjust to the scoring changes around the league. In the chart above, you'll see that the total has dropped in 13 of the 16 games compared to May's opener. On average, Week 4 totals dropped by 2.34 points, and that includes WSH/ARZ (up 4.5 points from 45 to 49.5)