NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 4 Best Bets

Sep 24, 2024

Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Another week goes by and large dogs continue to not only cover but win straight up. The dogs that covered this week were a little more deserving than in Week 2, as the Giants, Broncos, and Commanders all flat-out dominated from start to finish in their efforts, both in the box score and by my ‘earned points’ scoring. Unfortunately, the one dog I bet on in the Patriots showed almost no signs of life versus the Jets.

We ended the week by going 2-3 for -3.35 units. I’m not thrilled about a second straight negative week, but I’m still not concerned about the year at this point. Teams generally take until Week 6 to start forming what they actually are, and adjustments become smaller week to week. Right now, some of the good and bad performances by teams are still ‘noise’ in the grand scheme of things. But let’s get on to Week 4:

2024 NFL Week 4 Sides and Totals

Bet #1: Seattle Seahawks +4.5 -110 v Detroit Lions (graded at Caesars, same at Circa/BetRivers/Pinnacle with -110. FD has -115 and DraftKings has -112)

The look-ahead line here was 4. I have generally been higher on Seattle than the rest of the market, and nothing happened in Week 3 that made me think an adjustment was necessary.

Jared Goff has not necessarily played well in 2024. I’m still using a blend of 2023 and 2024 stats for the Lions offense, which likely puts my number on the higher end of what to expect from the Lions this week. So far they have played the Rams and Cardinals who can be expected to be toward the bottom of the league defensively by the end of the season and a heavily injured Tampa Bay secondary. The Lions have failed to make their team total in any of these efforts, and now get a big step up in the defense they will be facing. Goff has also struggled in the past with being able to read defenses that disguise coverages well on the field. Goff and company managed 65 total yards in the first half the last tim

e they saw a Mike MacDonald defensive scheme en route to a 38-6 loss versus the Ravens last year.

While the defense hasn’t been tested to date, the offense has looked good enough to cover a point spread outside of a field goal against most teams in the league. They still have one of the best wide receiver trios in the league as long as they remain healthy, and Geno Smith is one of the most accurate deep passers in the game, which is the best way to attack the Lions’ defense. The Lions are 3rd in the league in defensive EPA/Rush but fall to 20th in EPA/Pass. The Seahawks are 5th in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so they should be set up to attack the weaknesses in the Lions' defense.

I jumped on this number as I think it will be back to 4 or worse by tomorrow morning or with any good news regarding the Leonard Williams or Byron Murphy injuries.

Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 units