Week 4 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 3 Recap: 2-3, -$189 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 4-5, -$231 (assuming $100 units)

Although we finished 2-3 last week, I felt really good about everything on the card and they were all bets I would make again. Here is a recap on two of the plays:

Jakobi Meyers Under 3.5 Receptions (Loss)

This Jakobi loss was particularly frustrating; the Raiders were 5.5-point home favorites and coming off of a great win against the Ravens. All signs pointed to the Raiders controlling this game, but no. The Red Rifle-led Panthers scored 27 points in 3 quarters and had the Raiders trailing for the entire game and constantly throwing the ball. Jakobi had 3 catches with 3:26 left in the game, and the Raiders were faced with a 4th & 5. If the Panthers stopped them on the 4th down, the game is most likely over, and we win our bet. Instead, Jakobi caught the 4th-down ball and 3 more balls on the same drive to finish with 7. I would make this bet again.

Noah Fant Over 1.5 Receptions (Win)

This line was too low to pass up, and the books thought so, too, with this line closing on Sportsbooks at 2.5 -120 to the over. Fant has been a primary guy in the Seahawks offense this season and that trend continued with Fant seeing 6 targets for 6/60. Unless the Seahawks trade for Dalton Kincaid, I don’t think Fant should ever be lined at 1.5 receptions + money to the over. I would make this bet again.

Week 4 NFL Best Bets

Justin Watson UNDER 1.5 Receptions (-127) Prop City

Released in Discord on 9/26. Watson out-routed Juju 34-15 in the first two weeks. Last week Juju seemed to overtake Watson as the WR3 on the team, out-routing him 25-17. To start the season Watson has been targeted on only 9% of his routes run and has only gone over this number in 1/3 games. The Chiefs are 7 point favorites and should control this game. The Chargers have also been one of the slowest offenses in the entire league; last week against Pittsburgh the Chargers had the slowest neutral pace on the slate. Combining Watson's diminishing role, the expected low play volume, and a possible blowout, a 1.5 line for him is just too high.

Greg Dortch (AZ) OVER 3.5 Receptions (+126) Prop City

Released in Discord on 9/26. McBride is OUT for Sunday's game, opening up a bunch of extra targets to go around in this Arizona offense. This is an eruption spot for the Cardinals passing offense; the Commanders defense is 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed, This game features the highest total on the week at 50.5. Dortch is coming off a season-high 78% route participation last week, and on the season, he has seen a target on 23.8% of his routes run. I really like getting this at + money, and think Dortch is a safe bet for 6+ targets in this game.

Luke McCaffrey UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-130) Prop City

Released in Discord on 9/27. McCaffrey only ran 11 routes last week as Noah Brown took over as the Commanders WR2 behind Terry McLaurin. McCaffrey has shown flashes so far this season, but 2.5 is a bit too high for someone running only 11 routes. Even if McCaffrey emerges as the clear WR3 for this offense, I don’t anticipate him running more than 20 routes a week.

Only three bets so far this week, but be sure to get in our Discord, as I’ll be pushing out plays throughout the weekend. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game) or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here. Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

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I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through three weeks, we have released a total of 65 individual props (19 total entries):

Individual play record of: 39-26 (60% win rate)

Entry record of 3-16 (+$300; this assumes betting $100 per entry)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 5, you would have an 55.52% expected ROI!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1.