Week 5 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 4 Recap: 2-1, $99 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 6-6, -$132 (assuming $100 units)

We were hoping for a clean 3-0 sweep last week until the Rashee Rice knee injury early in the first quarter made Justin Watson a full-time player. This Watson bet was one of my favorites of the week. Watson came into this game losing playing time to Juju Smith-Schuster and has been a cardio king for the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately, Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury on the first drive, and Watson's playing time obviously spiked. Watson continued his typical wind sprints and was only targeted on 12% of his routes. Holding Watson under 1.5 was practically dead once Rice went down.

The other two bets were both winners: Greg Dortch OVER 3.5 receptions and Luke McCaffrey UNDER 2.5 receptions. Onto Week 5!

Week 5 NFL Best Bets

Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/4. I had my eyes on this opener all week after the comments we got from Patriots HC Jerod Mayo. Stevenson has fumbled four times this season, and HC Mayo said, "I've had multiple conversations with Rhamondre. We can't preach that ball security is job security and still have him out there the majority of the time." Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty both saw increased playing time last week, and I expect this backfield to shift closer to a committee.

Mack Hollins UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/4. Mack Hollins has been targeted on a little more than 10% of his routes this season, totaling only 4 catches for 46 yards. The Shakir injury shouldn't have a huge effect on Mack and his yardage/rec line should not have been hiked up this much. While Mack plays a bunch of snaps for the Bills, he plays primarily on the outside and is often used as a blocker in the run game. I am expecting Samuel to see an uptick in usage and practically replace Shakir this week.

Amari Cooper OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-119) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/4. Amari gets the nut matchup this week against a WAS defense who is allowing a league high 25.5 fantasy points per game to opposing "WR1s." While Deshaun Watson has been very inconsistent, Amari Cooper routes and targets have not. Amari leads the league in routes run, has earned 37 targets through 4 games, and has 45.7% of the air yards, good enough for 5th among WRs. This week he gets WAS who is allowing a league-high 25.5 points per game to opposing WR1 targets and have already allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns to wide receivers. We were on Cooper overs last week and he had multiple chances to get there. He had one of the worst drops of the week downfield which bounced off his chest and was intercepted. He also had an 82-yard TD called back for a phantom holding call on the OL.

Three bets so far this week, but be sure to get in our Discord, as I’ll be pushing out plays throughout the weekend.

Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here. Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

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I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays, and through four weeks, we have released a total of 83 individual props (24 total entries):

Individual play record of: 48-35 (57.83% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a positive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have an 16.05% expected ROI so far this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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