Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for PGA Cognizant Classic

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Mexico Open Recap

Last week was pretty bleh, as I wrote up the 2nd most expensive guy on the slate and missed the cut… Besides the Kitayama disaster, our other four golfers all made the cut and were highlighted by an 8th-place finish by Nicolai. The other three that made the cut didn't have the best tournaments. Kevin Yu looked great after Day 1 (-4) but only shot four-under over the next three rounds combined; his short game let him down.

Van Rooyen was under 70 for the tournament's first three rounds and was in prime position to go low on Sunday and finish inside the Top 20. Unfortunately, he shot three over par on a day, while the course played 1.33 strokes under par. Perez was just putrid after his first round -4, shooting a cumulative four over par rounds 2-4. Perez had his worst outing with Irons since the US Open in 2024. In the long run, taking consistent made cuts from guys sub $7.5k should pay off and is exactly what we are looking for. Onto PGA National for the Cognizant Classic!

Cognizant Classic Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code JAKE10 will get you your first month for $10 (regularly $29.99)

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: OTT; Less Than Driver Courses
• SG: Ball Striking; Gain OTT & APP: Difficult and Very Difficult courses
• SG: Approach; Gain on APP Difficult and Very Difficult courses
• SG: ARG & Scrambling
• Good Drive %; Gain OTT Difficult and Very Difficult
• SG: T2G - in 2025 (recent form)

Cognizant Classic DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Longest Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Davis Thompson $8.9K, +40/1 Cs/FD, 32nd in model

Thompson was the first click I made when building my classic lineups for this weekend. In my model, Thompson ranks:

• 16th in the field OTT (Less than Driver courses - last 50 rounds)
• 9th in SG: ARG (last 50 rounds)
• 5th in Total Drive % this season

Thompson is coming off of a T13 performance at the Genesis, where he gained strokes on Approach for the first time this season. Approach play and hitting GIR are both very important this weekend, but this is one of the toughest courses to do so on the tour, hence the heightened focus on ARG play and Scrambling. With his approach game showing signs of life, and one of the best short games on tour, Thompson could be in for a big weekend.

Bud Cauley, $7.3K, +85/1 BOL, 56th in model

Cauley missed all of the 2022 and 2023 seasons due to an injury stemming from a car accident in 2018. Cauley returned to action last season after a 1200+ day hiatus. Cauley’s 2024 season was underwhelming, but he flashed good iron play and great touch around the greens. So far this season, Cauley has only made two starts (WM Phoenix Open and the Sony Open); in those two starts, he finished T30 and T21, also showing he’s getting closer to his old form, gaining strokes in both tournaments with his short game, and ball striking. Cauley’s great touch around the greens and good recent ball striking fits perfectly at PGA National, a course he has had success at in his last three starts, finishing T12, T42, and T21. Cauley should also come in with low ownership on the classic slate for this weekend.

note: Cauley ranks only 56th in my model due to the lack of data on him in the last few years

Brian Harman, $7.7K, +70/1 BOL, 7th in model

Harman ranks 7th in my model despite being priced at only $7,700. While Harman is no monster off the tee, he does a lot of things very well. In his course preview, Ron Klos notes, “The numerous doglegs and water hazards force players to hit less than driver off the tee. This leads to one of the shortest average driving distances at only 279 yards.” In the last 50 rounds, Harman is 17th in the field on SG: OTT on courses that feature less than driver OTT. Some other stats that caught my eye on Harman; he ranks 10th in the field in SG: Approach on courses that are considered difficult and very difficult to gain on Approach, 3rd in GIR %, and 10th in Good Drive % on courses that are difficult and very difficult to gain OTT. Harman should also carry less ownership than some of the other flashier names right around his price tag.

Kurt Kitayama, $8.3K, +45/1 B365, 4th in model

After burning all of us last week, Kitayama finds his way back onto my Top Plays list for the Cognizant. Kitayama was one of the best ball strikers on tour last season and has had plenty of success, both OTT and with his irons, this season. Kitayama's putter let him down in a big way last week, and he's historically a pretty below-average putter, but on Bermuda putting surfaces, Kitayama has been very average (61st in the field over the past 3 years). Despite his mishaps on the greens, Kitayama is one of the field's best ball strikers and has a good touch around the greens as well. Kitayama saw his DraftKings price drop a lot after his missed cut last week. 8300 is a steal for a ball striker of Kitayama's quality at a course where high-quality iron shots are in high demand. Kitayama’s recent form is worrisome, but I am more than willing to take a stab at him at only 8300.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Davis Thompson

Cognizant Classic Best Bets

72 Hole Matchup:

Davis Thompson > Byeong Hun An -115 FanDuel

Outright:

Davis Thompson +4000 FD/Cs

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

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