The Fantasy Football Implications of Tyler Shough to the Saints
With the 40th pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints selected quarterback Tyler Shough out of Louisville. He’ll now join head coach Kellen Moore and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier in an effort to revive a fading Saints passing game, especially if Derek Carr has taken his final snap in Louisiana. With Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed expected to be ready for Week 1, and Brandin Cooks returning to the fold, Shough’s new environment offers far more support than many rookie quarterbacks get.
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Tyler Shough Prospect Profile
Let’s try to keep this as brief as we can. Shough was in college for quite a long time, so we’ll gloss over a good bit of it before we get to his most recent campaigns.
Shough was a four-star recruit out of Chandler, Arizona, way back in 2018. He started his college career at Oregon, attempting just under 200 passes across three seasons —though part of that was due to the pandemic-shortened 2020 schedule. He later transferred to Texas Tech, where a string of injuries threatened not just his college future, but his playing career as a whole. He missed most of the 2021 season with a broken collarbone, re-broke the same bone in 2022, and then fractured his leg in 2023 — a brutal run of bad luck during his time in Lubbock.
His final transfer —this time to Louisville— would prove fruitful (and injury-free).
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | INT | ADJ Comp% | Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Texas Tech | 1,290 | 7 | 4 | 70.6% | 72 | 269 | 4 |
| 2023 | Texas Tech | 746 | 7 | 4 | 69.9% | 48 | 149 | 2 |
| 2024 | Louisville | 3,191 | 23 | 6 | 75.1% | 42 | 19 | 1 |
Whether it’s because of his extensive injury history or simply the offense in Louisville, it is worth pointing out that Shough ran way less in his final collegiate year than he did in the previous two seasons. It’s rumored that head coach Jeff Brohm kept him from running as much as he did during his time with Texas Tech and Oregon to keep him healthy, but since I can’t find a direct quote, we’ll have to leave that in the “rumor” category.
The feed needs a positive Tyler Shough clip today.
He doesn't always play awkward and scared. pic.twitter.com/IVBcoLkJn3— Marcus Whitman (@TFG_Football) April 16, 2025
What we can use as a takeaway is Shough’s heightened amount of throwaways, which could be a sign of him trying to avoid contact. Before his time at Louisville, he had accrued a 4.2% throwaway rate on 561 pass attempts. In 2024, that number jumped to 7.9% on 391 attempts, while his pressure-to-sack rate plummeted to 9.3% from a previous career mark of 19.3%. While we (obviously) love it when quarterbacks don’t get sacked, this change in play-style could point toward an oft-injured QB who avoids hanging in the pocket to complete a difficult throw with a defender breathing down his neck.
This might all be a symptom of his final college’s offense, but if we’re getting a quarterback who won’t be making many big-time throws and is now averse to taking off with the ball, we’re getting squeezed on two sides of what makes a great fantasy piece.
What to Expect from Tyler Shough and the Saints Offense in 2025
For the sake of us not going back and forth with a litany of “if/then” statements, we’re just going to assume that Derek Carr is either out for the season (or in a different uniform) and Shough beats out last year’s fifth-rounder, Spencer Rattler, to earn the starting job heading into Week 1. Saints aficionado Nick Underhill has already said Shough is the shoo-in (well, 80% sure he’s starting 80% of the games), so we’re sticking with that.
Let’s take a look at Shough’s surrounding talent, which is honestly not at all bad if everyone is healthy. Most importantly, he’ll have Chris Olave at the top of the depth chart, who people seem to forget was coming off of fantasy draft boards as the WR12 over the last two years. He’s currently leaving Underdog boards as the WR34 because of a perceived drop in QB talent and because…the Saints lose a lot? Shough might have some wrinkles to iron out at the next level, but it’s not as if Carr has been lighting it up when pushing the ball down the field in his 27 games as a Saint; his 4.1% big-time throw rate (PFF) in that span would have ranked 20th among qualifying quarterbacks last year.
Even if we don’t consider Olave a borderline WR1 due to his recent issues with concussions, ancillary piece Rashid Shaheed, and a sprinkling of Brandin Cooks, offer Shough plenty of speed to uncork his strong arm.
Tyler Shough throwing the high corner off play-action. Can't drop it in the bucket much better than that. pic.twitter.com/WwImNydpmd
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 1, 2025
If Shough truly is playing scared and is hesitant to welcome contact because of his lengthy injury history, might I interest you in one of the best RB pass-catchers of the 21st century as a dump-off valve? Alvin Kamara may be ceding more ground work in his age-30 season, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still one of the best receiving options out of the backfield in the NFL.
Will Shough be the tide that lifts all fantasy boats in New Orleans? Probably not. Is Shough probably the worst starting quarterback Kellen Moore has worked with in his time as a coach? Well, maybe. But he also has the requisite arm talent and maneuverability to keep plays alive and keep Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara entrenched in our fantasy psyche. While he’s unlikely to dig himself anywhere above a QB24 consideration, there is a legitimate chance that another year removed from his string of injuries might see him return to breaking the pocket and taking off with the ball.
Bottom Line
- Tyler Shough is a very old quarterback prospect due to a little bad luck with injuries, but he showed what he can do with a fully healthy season in Louisville last year.
- Shough had a sharp downturn in scrambling/rushing during his final collegiate season, which would sap a ton of fantasy goodness if that continues as a rookie (and beyond).
- According to the current Underdog ADP, Shough is coming off the boards as the QB33, directly behind Aaron Rodgers and Shedeur Sanders. All three of these quarterbacks will need things to break their way (or not retire) for them to be feasible fantasy assets in 2025. With that said, Shough is earmarked for a lot of starts this season, is attached to a better group of skill players than he’s being credited for, and makes a perfectly reasonable QB3 for best ball teams.
