5 Overvalued Wide Receivers (Busts)

Aug 06, 2020

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It is well known that finding value is critical to drafting successfully in fantasy football. Necessarily, that means drafting players who are overvalued is a recipe for fantasy heartbreak. I always find it difficult to write these articles, as more often than not I have to write about players I love and who are immensely talented. However, despite all of their gifts, their situation isn’t quite what it might seem for fantasy purposes at their current ADP. Thus, they are overvalued.

More Overvalued Players: QB | RB | TE

This is not to say these players are going to play poorly or be a full-out “bust” this season. In fact, injuries notwithstanding I’m sure all of these receivers will put up good numbers. By making it on this list I’m merely suggesting that when you look back on your draft at the conclusion of the 2020 season, the return on your draft pick investment won’t be as fruitful as you had hoped when you selected these wide receivers at their current costs.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

Please read this disclaimer before flaming me: DeAndre Hopkins is a phenomenal wide receiver and has a good chance to finish 2020 as a WR1. This article is about “overvalued” wide receivers, and with Hopkins coming off the board on average as the 12th pick in drafts, that strikes me as a bit expensive. Hopkins was traded to the Cardinals in March in one of the offseason’s biggest and most franchise-altering moves. The Cardinals found their young superstar quarterback, Kyler Murray, a true No. 1 wide receiver in Hopkins. But what exactly will Hopkins be in fantasy in 2020?

Last season, despite the arrival of Kliff Kingsbury and Murray, the Cardinals were far from a high-flying offense. The Cardinals ranked 16th in neutral game pass rate, 18th in pass attempts overall, and 16th in points scored. Hopkins’s arrival could improve those statistics, but part of the concern with Hopkins is forecasting his target share in a potentially crowded passing attack. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk saw over 100 targets last season, each falling just shy of a 20% target share in the Cardinals offense. Plus, once Kenyan Drake arrived via trade in Week 9, he saw 14% of the team’s targets.

Over his last five seasons in Houston, Hopkins averaged a target share of 30.1%. It is possible for him to hit that number in Arizona, sure, but with so many options in a middle-of-the-pack passing volume offense, it seems far more likely that Hopkins’ target share falls to the 20-25% range. That still makes him a valuable fantasy asset, but one who should be drafted a little later than his current late-first round asking price.