FanDuel Week 16 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Dec 21, 2017

Below I give my overall FanDuel cash game and tournament strategy thoughts and discuss how players fit into these strategies. By offering a general approach to the week, along with a player pool to consider, you should walk away feeling well-equipped no matter your bankroll strategy or game selection process.

Main Slate Cash Game Strategy

Most of the top values this week are players priced near the top of salary at their respective positions. With so many stud players in favorable spots, finding a couple viable punt plays is likely the route to the cash lineup with the highest floor.

Quarterback

Cam Newton ($8,300) is projected as the top value at his position by a massive margin and his odds to hit cash value are 11 percentage points higher than any other signal-caller. Newton has arguably been the best quarterback of late, posting the highest touchdown rate and third-most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks—and those numbers don’t take into account the 43 rushing yards per game Cam is averaging. Carolina is favored by 10 at home over the Buccaneers and are projected to score over 28 points. No team has allowed more passing yards than Tampa Bay this season and only six defenses have allowed more rushing yards to quarterbacks.

In the $7,000 range, Alex Smith ($7,800) and Matthew Stafford ($7,900) both project as top-four values at their positions. The Chiefs are 10-point home favorites with an implied point total over 26 and they face a Dolphins defense ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Only three quarterbacks have scored more fantasy points per pass attempt than Stafford over the last six weeks and he faces a Bengals defense that has allowed at least 19 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in four straight games and may be down as many as five starters on defense. While Detroit’s 24-point implied total is relatively modest, 75% of the Lions’ touchdowns have come through the air this season.

There should always be at least some consideration to pay down at quarterback and the preferred punt option this week is Drew Stanton ($6,000). The Giants rank in the bottom five in aFPA to every skill position, including 28th against quarterbacks. New York has allowed 7 passing touchdowns over the last two weeks and no defense has allowed more 20+ fantasy point games to quarterbacks all year.