DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 7
It's Week 7 of the Air Yards Buy-Low model! The Buy-Low model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that. This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.59, which, while less than last week is still extremely solid.
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In GPPs you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and running backs who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even Week 7.
| Name | Predicted FP | Actual FP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 11.5 | 9.5 | -2.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 11.0 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| Pierre Garcon | 10.8 | 8.9 | -2.0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 10.1 | 9.3 | -0.8 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 9.7 | 8.4 | -1.3 |
| Doug Baldwin | 9.5 | 8.4 | -1.1 |
| Greg Olsen | 9.3 | 8.8 | -0.5 |
| Zay Jones | 9.2 | 8.4 | -0.7 |
| Antonio Callaway | 9.1 | 5.5 | -3.6 |
| Taywan Taylor | 8.9 | 7.7 | -1.2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8.6 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 8.4 | 4.3 | -4.1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 8.2 | 6.4 | -1.9 |
| Danny Amendola | 8.1 | 8.0 | -0.1 |
| Keelan Cole | 8.1 | 7.5 | -0.6 |
| Josh Doctson | 7.8 | 5.0 | -2.8 |
| Kenny Stills | 7.7 | 5.1 | -2.6 |
| Maurice Harris | 7.6 | 6.0 | -1.6 |
| Seth Roberts | 7.4 | 6.5 | -1.0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7.3 | 5.9 | -1.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7.3 | 7.1 | -0.2 |
Key Takeaways
- I like almost none of these plays. But that's me, not the model.
- Jarvis Landry ($7,300 DK/$6,500 FD) is a receiver who has seen a Weighted Opportunity Rating of 0.48 the past four weeks for the Browns. His teammate, Antonio Calaway ($4,300 DK/$4,800 FD) is just a tick behind him at 0.47 and is also on the list, which is important to consider when price is a factor. Both have positive regression in their future—even if we are almost sure a player like Callaway is just bad—because the model says so and also because we can even tell a pretty story about how it might happen with a QB like Baker Mayfield at the helm. Perhaps most importantly for tournament players, the public is telling themselves an even more compelling story about how both Jarvis and Callaway are terrible. Fade the noise another week and bet on volume.
- Larry Fitzgerald ($4,300 DK/$5,800 FD) is now a bargain in DFS despite his resume and skill set. Even if he is washed, the odds are decent that he has at least one single-TD game left in him. The model says this is the week, and I am here to preach trust.
- Alvin Kamara ($8.500 DK/$8,200 FD) is coming off a rare (for him) down game and is facing a defense that the public believes is #good. Fade that nonsense and bet on an RB that has shown that he is both defense and game script independent over the past two years. The model likes him to see positive regression in his passing stats, and there are lots of compelling narrative reasons to believe that this will be the case, whether you believe defenses matter or not. Find a spot for Kamara in your lineups.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images.
