10 Players Whose Dynasty ADP Fell the Most in July

Jul 16, 2017

As the beginning of NFL training camp nears, the dynasty values of many key players continue to fluctuate, which offers dynasty owners opportunities to buy/sell that must be taken advantage of in order to build a long-term winner. We have a new batch of ADP data from the crew at Dynasty League Football, so below are the top ADP fallers from June to July.

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Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, Patriots

June ADP: 192.33
July ADP: 224
Change: - 31.67

Other than a minor leg injury keeping him out of recent OTAs, there has been very little recent news surrounding Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, yet he’s the top faller from June through July. Perhaps dynasty owners have finally given up on the hope that New England will ship Garoppolo off to a quarterback-needy team. Over the years of collecting and monitoring ADP data like this, I've noticed that as the NFL season nears, dynasty owners tend to shift their focus towards players who can help them win in the short-term. Barring an injury to Tom Brady, Garoppolo will rarely see the field this season, so his drop in value is more about his position as a backup than anything he has or has not done recently. Next offseason remains the tipping point for Garoppolo because he is scheduled to enter free agency, and the Patriots will be forced to make a decision about their quarterback position for the next few years.

Breshad Perriman - WR, Ravens

June ADP: 71.33
July ADP: 100
Change: -28.67

Unlike Garoppolo, there is a very clear reason why Breshad Perriman’s dynasty stock is falling: Clearly feeling uncertain about their pass catchers following multiple departures from last season’s team and a recent devastating injury to tight end Dennis Pitta, the Ravens signed Chiefs castoff Jeremy Maclin. The addition of the veteran Maclin pushes each incumbent wide receiver one spot down on the depth chart, which hurts both Perriman and Mike Wallace. After missing his entire rookie season due to injury, Perriman made his debut for the Ravens in 2016 and played in every game, but failed to make a huge impact. While the upside is still there for the 23-year-old wideout, a breakout season in 2017 seems unlikely despite the high-volume passing offense the Ravens are likely to again employ.

Tajae Sharpe - WR, Titans

June ADP: 215.83
July ADP: 241
Change: -25.17

Second-year receiver Tajae Sharpe is a compelling case study of dynasty value. After being drafted in the fifth round of the '16 draft, Sharpe was inexplicably named a starting wideout before training camp even began. This obviously caused Sharpe’s dynasty value to explode, with his ADP reaching a high point of 73rd overall early in his rookie season. Unfortunately, Sharpe rarely lived up to expectations on the field, posting just a pair of top-24 weekly finishes during the season. The Titans were obviously focused on improving their wide receiver corps this offseason, spending a pair of early draft picks to acquire Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor. As if that wasn’t enough to damage Sharpe’s value, the Titans recently signed former Jets wide receiver Eric Decker, causing dynasty owners to completely give up on Sharpe -- he went undrafted in all DLF mocks in July. Throw in an off-field issue this offseason in which Sharpe is accused of beating a man outside of a Nashville bar, and it’s easy to see why Sharpe has no remaining dynasty value.

Terrance West - RB, Ravens

June ADP: 166
July ADP: 190.33
Change: -24.33

If you read last month’s edition of this article, you might recall Ravens veteran back Terrance West somehow showed up among the top risers from May through June. While this made little sense at the time, West’s July ADP is clearly a correction. It is unclear how the crowded Baltimore backfield will shake out, but former Charger Danny Woodhead is the obvious favorite to see the majority of targets out of the backfield. The team also has to be interested in finding out if young back Kenneth Dixon can be the team’s lead runner once he returns from an early-season suspension, that is. Younger than many realize at just 26 years old, West is an underrated back and a much easier target at his new July ADP of 190.

Dion Lewis - RB, Patriots

June ADP: 188.67
July ADP: 210
Change: -21.33

The Patriots backfield sure to confuse fantasy players on a weekly basis, and it seems pass-catching and often-injured back Dion Lewis is suffering the effects of a bevy of offseason moves. While the Patriots did let big back LeGarrette Blount walk via free agency, the team signed Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead, and also gave Super Bowl hero James White a new contract. There has been some speculation Lewis could be cut, though longtime beat writer Mike Reiss expects Lewis to remain, but in a lesser role than in previous years. Falling nearly two rounds since June, Lewis is barely worthy of a roster spot a year and a half removed from his ADP hitting a high point of 40th overall late in the 2015 season.

Related: The Fantasy Value of Patriots Running Backs Mike Gillislee, James White, Dion Lewis & Rex Burkhead

Jamaal Williams - RB, Packers

June ADP: 124.17
July ADP: 145.5
Change: -21.33

There has been absolutely no recent news on the Packers rookie back Jamaal Williams, so seeing him tumble nearly two full rounds from June through July caught my attention. A pair of possible reasons for Williams apparent value loss come to mind. Firstly, despite being the first back drafted by Green Bay, Williams wasn’t the only one. The team also added Aaron Jones and Devante Mays later in the draft. And of course, incumbent starter Ty Montgomery remains atop the depth chart. There is a lot of competition for touches in the Packers’ backfield, rendering Williams no sure thing. Secondly, like I mentioned in regards to Garoppolo, fantasy owners tend to become more focused on building teams that can win now as the season nears; a backup rookie runner doesn’t typically fit that mold. While we are unsure of Williams’ future, he is certainly worth investing in given his recent dip in value.

Chris Conley - WR, Chiefs

June ADP: 148
July ADP: 167.5
Change: -19.5

I talked a lot about Chiefs young wide receiver Chris Conley last month after he jumped an outrageous 91 spots from May to June. Much like West, this drop of almost 20 spots is simply a correction. There is nothing new to report on Conley, who is still slated to start for the Chiefs after they released Maclin several weeks ago. Even at this ADP, Conley is still being overvalued given the Chiefs low-volume pass offense and being the clear third option, at best, behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Related: What Can We Expect from Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill?

Cooper Kupp - WR, Rams

June ADP: 157.67
July ADP: 177.17
Change: -19.5

Rams rookie Cooper Kupp has yet to step on the field, yet saw his dynasty ADP drop by nearly 20 spots since last month. There is no obvious reason for this plunge, other than the same idea of fantasy players chasing short-term options with training camps opening later this month. With the recent news of a four-game suspension for Rams wideout Mike Thomas, Kupp and some of his teammates could see a slight jump in ADP. The Rams' wide receiver depth chart is a tricky one to project after they lost their top option from last season, Kenny Britt. They have brought in former Bills veteran Robert Woods and have drafted Josh Reynolds in addition to Kupp, adding to the trio of Thomas, Tavon Austin and Pharoh Cooper. At least one of those guys should be a strong fantasy producer, but right now I have no confidence in choosing one among that crowd. Rams beat writer Alden Gonzalez has made his choice though, calling Kupp a “security blanket” for quarterback Jared Goff.

Wayne Gallman - RB, Giants

June ADP: 166.17
July ADP: 185
Change: -18.83

Rookie Wayne Gallman is yet another case of a seemingly unprovoked ADP dip, as he dropped more than a round and a half from June to July. Although he's not a highly valued rookie relative to many others, Gallman should be a welcome addition to one of the league’s worst backfields. The Giants released veteran Rashad Jennings this offseason, leaving Gallman to battle Shane Vereen and Paul Perkins for backfield touches. The rookie is expected to serve as the backup to Perkins, with Vereen being the pass-catching back if healthy.

Wendell Smallwood - RB, Eagles

June ADP: 216
July ADP: 234
Change: -18

Unlike many of the other players listed here, there is a clear reason for the fall of second-year back Wendell Smallwood. After an underwhelming rookie season and an overall poor season for Eagles running backs, the team brought in former Patriots back LeGarrette Blount and drafted speedster Donnel Pumphrey to compete with Smallwood and Darren Sproles (Ryan Mathews is expected to be released). Smallwood had reportedly fallen behind Pumphrey at OTAs, and there have even been some rumors he might not make the final roster. At an ADP of 234, dynasty owners barely think Smallwood is worthy of a roster spot.

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