DFS Kicker & DST Analysis: Week 3

Sep 21, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

Pricing is tight for Week 3, particularly on DraftKings. Due to this, I can see players gravitating towards the cheapest “best” defense in the chalk price range so they can pay up for other positions. The ownership in cash games should be filtered towards the Eagles for $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel, when you consider the Dolphins (who play the Jets) are the second-highest priced DST on DraftKings and tied for the highest with the Broncos on FanDuel. It shouldn’t be difficult to gain leverage on the field as we know where most of the ownership will be.

The upside with the Philadelphia Eagles ($4,500/$3,000) DST is that they face a Giants team that has scored just 13 points all season—only the Bengals and 49ers have scored fewer points this season. They’ve forced a score on 13.6% of their drives—the second-worst mark in the league. The Eagles are currently 6-point home favorites, while the Giants are implied for a paltry 18.75 points. The downside is you won’t gain much leverage in GPPs as they have one of the lowest Leverage scores among defenses.
The upside with the Miami Dolphins ($5,100/$3,700) DST is that they have the luxury of facing the Jets. The Dolphins are 6-point home favorites, and the Jets are implied for 17.75 points. The downside is the Dolphins are on the road, and Miami has allowed 6.8 yards per play this season—the third-highest mark in the league.
The upside with the Denver Broncos ($5,100/$3,600) DST is that they’re currently 3-point favorites, and the Bills are implied for 18.5 points—the sixth-lowest total on the slate. The Bills strength is their run game, but the Broncos are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Last week they were able to hold Ezekiel Elliott to 8 yards on 9 carries. Given the Bills aren’t strong through the air, it shouldn’t be too hard for them to sell out and limit their best offensive asset in LeSean McCoy. The downside for the Broncos is that they’re on the road, and they boast one of the lowest GPP Leverage Scores on the slate.
The upside with the New England Patriots ($4,900/$3,800) DST is that they face one of the most inept offenses in the league. The Patriots are at home, and the Texans have the lowest total on the slate at 15.25 points. Houston ranks 28th in points forced and 29th in total yards—they also have the sixth-highest turnover rate among offenses. The only knock on the Patriots is they’ve allowed the second-most yards and yards per play among defenses this season, but they’ve faced much more competent offenses the prior two weeks.