DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 9

Nov 02, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Two of the three highest-scoring tight ends from Week 8 are projected to be the highest-owned tight ends in Week 9. While one of these players is in another favorable spot, the other is in a more marginal situation. Even with six teams on a bye this week, ownership projections at tight end are relatively flat, which means that owners who do decide to play the chalk won’t have to play an uncomfortable amount of any player to be overweight.

For the second time in three weeks, Jack Doyle ($5,700 FD/$4,300 DK) saw double-digit targets and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in five of the Colts' last six games. Only three tight ends have seen a higher target share than Doyle this season and he projects as the top tight end value on DraftKings, where he’s priced as the TE8, despite his steady volume. Even after his Week 8 explosion, there are concerns regarding Doyle’s ceiling, as he’s seen just 4 red zone targets all season and Indianapolis has the second-lowest implied point total on the main slate.
Jimmy Graham ($6,200/$5,000) has scored 4 touchdowns over his last three games and has at least 10 PPR points in five straight, but his volume leaves something to be desired from a tight end priced in the top four at his position. Graham ranks ninth among tight ends in targets per game and seventh in target share but has maintained his relative fantasy consistency with the second-most red zone targets in the league. Only two teams are projected to score more points than the Seahawks this week, but Graham’s touchdown dependency should slant his usage towards FanDuel, especially in cash game considerations.