DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 13

Nov 30, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

We project the Chargers to be our highest-owned defense in Week 13. I never think there is much risk in fading a chalk defense given how much variance there is in their scoring. There is also an abundance of leverage plays from the mid-range. That said, given the dynamics of the slate, they aren’t hard to pay for on either site and the Chargers will likely end up as my cash game defense if I don't pay up for the Jaguars.

The Los Angeles Chargers ($5,300/$4,000) are in a tremendous spot as they’re 14-point favorites at home against a Browns team implied for 14.25 points. The Browns will have their hands full against a Chargers team ranked seventh in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Cleveland also boasts the league’s worst scoring and turnover rate among offenses and rank 31st in defensive aFPA.