Streaming Kickers: Week 16 Fantasy Football Targets

Dec 19, 2017

It’s Week 16, championship time in most leagues, and you’ll need all the points you can get to take home that elusive trophy. While some may scoff at researching the kicker position, we’ve found that projecting a kicker’s output isn’t as difficult or random as you may think—in fact, taking a look at Vegas odds is the best way to accurately predict a kicker’s weekly potential. By focusing in on the team implied point totals, game totals, and favorites, we can get a cumulative idea of how an offense will perform when it comes to settling for field goals, distance of kicks, and the like.

Another metric useful in projecting a kicker’s output is 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed or aFPA. By removing the schedule bias, we can compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner. By Week 4, there’s a solid sample size to work from, and the info gets more trustworthy with each data-filled week.

The goal in streaming is to roster a player who will return starting kicker fantasy points, and Week 15 was a brutal one. Kai Forbath and Jake Elliott were my best streamers with 12 and 10 points respectively, followed by not so successful picks. 4for4’s optimal streaming kicker has 205 total points on the season, enough for first place among all kickers in the league. Let’s move forward to Week 16 and attack those fake football finals!

In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Dan Bailey (DAL) vs. SEA

The Cowboys are fighting for a playoff berth and get Ezekiel Elliott back in the nick of time. This contest has an over/under of 47 points, with Dallas favored to win by five. Seattle has struggled a bit on defense in the second half of the season, and have dealt with their fair share of injuries along the way. Bailey should be given plenty of opportunities to score on Sunday and is currently rostered in just 31% of Yahoo leagues.

Jake Elliott (PHI) vs. OAK

At 12–2, the Eagles are trucking along despite losing Carson Wentz for the season. Their game versus the Raiders has a generous over/under of 47, with the Eagles favored to win by nine points. Ranked 27^th in kicker aFPA, the Raiders allow an average of 8.5 fantasy points to the kicker position, which could certainly help your playoff squad this week. Philly’s rookie placekicker is having an excellent start to his NFL career, sitting 11th among kickers after the first 15 weeks. Elliott is free in 45% of leagues and makes a solid choice for a streamer this week.