DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 17

Dec 28, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

Of the chalk defenses, the Seahawks are the only defense playing for something. With a full 16 games on Sunday, you won’t need to stick to the chalk defenses, but I think paying attention to motivation is important. That said, a lot of teams not playing for playoff spots will still play plenty of their starters. Pay attention to NFL news leading up to lock to get a better feel for any potential changes.

The Seattle Seahawks ($5,000/$3,400) project as a top-four value on both sites this week as they’re at home against a Cardinals team ranked 27th in aFPA. It’s an excellent spot as the Seahawks are highly motivated to win this game. They are 10-point favorites as the Cardinals’ team total has dropped from 16.5 to 14.25 since the line opened.
The Denver Broncos ($4,500/$2,900) don’t have anything to play for but they’re taking on a Chiefs team resting some key starters in this game. That said, Patrick Mahomes was one of the best quarterbacks in the preseason. What’s funny is the Broncos are only 3.5-point favorites against a Chiefs team projected to play a lot of their backups. Nonetheless, they’re still home favorites.
Washington ($4,600/$3,200) is on the road, which isn’t ideal, but they are 3-point favorites against a Giants team implied to score only 17.25 points. It’s also a boost that the Giants could be without Evan Engram (ribs, ruled questionable on Wednesday) and Sterling Shepard (neck), who hasn’t been practicing.