DFS Quarterback Analysis: Wild Card Edition

Jan 03, 2018

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs for the Wild Card slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

On a four-game slate, quarterback ownership should be relatively spread out, but Jared Goff, Cam Newton and Drew Brees project to be the highest owned for us. Overall, I’d prefer to stick to the quarterbacks with favorable team totals in softer matchups.

Jared Goff ($8,500/$6,700) and the Rams have the highest team total on the slate at 27.5 points against a Falcons defense ranked 19th in quarterback aFPA. The trouble with Goff is he is the highest-priced quarterback on both sites, but he has the fourth-highest median projection, and he’s a bottom-two value on both sites.
Cam Newton ($8,300/$6,500) has had a few floor games in the last two weeks as he’s failed to top 17 fantasy points. He hasn’t topped 185 passing yards in five of his last six games, but he’s made up for it with his rushing, with 11 or more attempts in his last four games, topping 50 rushing yards in each of them, which makes up for his lack of passing at times. The downside of this game is the Saints rank 29th in pace, and the Panthers rank 32nd. That said, Cam does project as a top-two value with the highest ceiling-projection among quarterbacks.
Drew Brees ($8,100/$6,400) is in an intriguing spot as the Saints have been more run-heavy this season, but the Panthers have been exceptional against the run as they rank fourth in running back aFPA, but 22nd in quarterback aFPA, and 32nd in wide receiver aFPA. Brees has been a solid floor play this season but has yet to have much of a ceiling. This is a solid spot for him as they have an implied team total of 27.25 points at home.