DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Wild Card Edition

Jan 04, 2018

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

With only four games to choose from, it’s no surprise the three most expensive receivers on the slate are expected to be the highest owned as well. There are just two receivers across all eight teams playing this weekend who have seen reliable volume all year. While elite wideouts have an unmatched ceiling, it’s worth noting that the highest-value lineups on FanDuel—according to 4for4’s lineup generator—favor fading expensive wide receivers.

Julio Jones ($8,500 FD/$8,000 DK) finished seventh in the league in targets and was fourth in target share but he rarely offered tournament-winning upside in 2017. Jones exceeded 20 PPR points just three times all year—for perspective, 23 receivers had at least three 20-point PPR games this season and 12 had four or more such games. The Falcons face a Rams defense ranked 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers, Los Angeles’ lowest ranking against any skill position. As 6.5-point road underdogs, Atlanta should find themselves in a situation where they are forced to throw late in the game.
Michael Thomas ($8,300/$7,800) is projected as the top wide receiver value on both sites against a Carolina secondary ranked last in wide receiver aFPA. Only one team allowed more receptions to receivers than the Panthers this year and Thomas is just one of five receivers to score at least 20 PPR points against Carolina this season. The Panthers faced a 61.9% passing rate in the red zone this year, the third-highest against any defense, and all five of Thomas’ touchdowns this year came from inside the 10-yard line.
Tyreek Hill ($7,700/$6,800) projects as a top-two value on both sites in a game where Kansas City has an implied point total over 26. Tennessee ranks 20th in wide receiver aFPA and only four teams allowed more touchdowns to the position this season. The Titans also allowed the sixth-fewest completions on deep balls (traveled 15+ yards in the air). Hill relied on the deep ball for 49% of his PPR scoring this season.