3 Overvalued Quarterbacks

Aug 08, 2018

I'd like to be honest with you, dear consummate consumer of fantasy football content, and say that writing a column on overvalued quarterbacks isn't easy.

That's not because it requires some sort of complex mathematical breakdown of how the player may or may not return value in a given season, or because quarterbacks is an inherently unpredictable position (it's not). It's hard to write this column because, in traditional one-QB formats, quarterbacks don't really matter. They're imminently replaceable, as we see year after year after year, barring the outliers.

More Overvalued Players: TE | RB | WR

Sleepers, Values, and Targets: RB | WR | QB | TE

This isn't the case in superflex and 2QB leagues, as those formats force fantasy players to value the quarterback spot as more than a secondary consideration that can be figured out every week on the waiver wire. Perhaps the following analysis is most valuable for folks who play in those formats.

There remains, of course, early-QB truthers in our midst. They lurk around the edges of the fantasy industry this time of year, primed to paint a narrative-driven picture of a perfect quarterback season—think Peyton Manning's 2013 or Tom Brady's 2007. Or, for that matter, Deshaun Watson's brief 2017 campaign...

Deshaun Watson (ADP: QB2)

If you're taking the third-round leap on Watson this summer, you're banking on the quarterback maintaining something close to his hyper-efficient 2017 production. Watson's miraculous seven-week run is indeed historic. Fantasy footballers should never chase historic. It happened. Let it be. Watson could still come close to meeting his astronomical draft day cost if things fall right, but with a healthy Houston defense and a more balanced offensive approach—with game script not forcing the Texans into pass-only mode—Watson profiles as the prototypical overvalued player. Let's just say there's a more-than-decent chance Watson's 9.4 percent touchdown rate comes back to earth. Tom Brady, after all, posted an 8.7 percent touchdown rate in his epic 50-touchdown 2007 campaign.

Russell Wilson (ADP: QB4)

Continue reading to see why Denny believes Russell Wilson is being overdrafted at his current ADP, and to see which other signal-caller has made his overvalued list for the 2018 fantasy season...