DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 2

Sep 13, 2018

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using 4for4 GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low relative to projected performance. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. The players that are underweight, or fade recommendations, are for tournaments only—in fact, often times my cash game players will make it into that section as I often hedge by being underweight on those plays.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Matthew Stafford ($7,700 FD/$6,100 DK)

Stafford struggled mightily against the Jets in a game that seemed to set up well for him. The key is to determine if those struggles will continue throughout the rest of the 2018 season. The 49ers defense ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) against the pass and struggled against Kirk Cousins last week. Stafford now has three reliable weapons at the wide receiver position with the emergence on Kenny Golladay. The Lions quarterback projects to be owned in the 1–5 percent range with a leverage score of 1.39 on DraftKings and 1.38 on FanDuel. Relative to the field, we only need five percent Stafford to be overweight, however, I wouldn’t argue with 10-15 percent. The game total is currently 48, the third highest on the board. Targeting games just below the highest total of the week is a good way to be contrarian.