TVS - Targeting Valuable Starters

Below I'll briefly overview TVS – Targeting Valuable Starters. The TVS Principles outlined below are widely applicable to both auction and non-auction league draft formats.

A key element to having a winning draft is having a winning attitude --- confidence in what you're doing. By taking a few minutes to read this intro, hopefully you'll gain a better understanding of 4for4.com's suggested auction price list and the TVS Value. In turn, you'll have more confidence in applying the information.

Still reading? Great. Unlike other drafting methods, TVS fully integrates five vital elements and delivers the results via a parsimonious Power Rating.

In a nutshell, the TVS process determines draft day value by:

1) Evaluating a player's ability to generate Fantasy Points relative to your competitor's players at that same position

2) Evaluating a player's ability to generate Fantasy Points relative to "easily obtainable" players via the waiver wire (fantasy free agent pool).

3) Evaluating a player's overall ability to generate Fantasy Points (via his talent, durability, job security, consistency level, offensive system and workload).

4) Evaluating a player's Strategic Value (Example: key backup to a stud RB).

5) In addition, TVS considers the # of effective Fantasy starts a player will likely give you! This is a key and unique element used in the TVS Power Rating computation.

Fortunately, 95% or more of your competitors don't consider all these factors when they evaluate and draft players. As such, by utilizing the TVS Power Rating, you gain a competitive advantage.

Some Fantasy Football team owners utilize value based drafting techniques to select players. In the process, they attempt to utilize projected season statistics to evaluate whom to draft. Projected stats help determine the degree to which a given player will outscore other players at that position. In addition, they can help evaluate potential draft picks across different positions. Value based methods are a step in the right direction. In fact, TVS leverages the principle in computing the Power Rating. However, projected season stats only give you part of the picture!

A more insightful way to systematically determine a player's Fantasy Value can be had by considering:

1) How many Fantasy Starts you'll likely obtain from the player

2) When you do start the player, how much he'll outscore (or be outscored by) your opponent's starting players at the same position.

Player's Fantasy Value = (# Fantasy Starts) x (Relative Scoring Ability)

Strictly speaking, a good Fantasy Draft consists of more than just obtaining a number of high scoring players. Rather, a successful Fantasy Draft allows you to field a starting lineup that will consistently outscore your opponent's starting lineup.

QUESTION: Assuming your league starts two RBs each week and all the RBs stay healthy, which backfield would you like to own? (see Table I and II)

Using projected season statistics, Team-B’s forecast will likely earn you more Value Based points on draft day. And in total, Team-B looks to generate more Yards and TDs in total.

So, which team would you like to own? A or B?

If you said “Team-A” you're halfway home to understanding TVS. Clearly in a league that starts two RBs each week, Team-A is highly preferred over Team-B.

Why? Plain and simple, Team-A should deliver more valuable starts than Team-B.

The take is simple! The better job you can do at targeting and drafting valuable starters, the better your draft. TVS helps you do just this.

So where do you find TVS values? Online, 4for4.com will post pre-calculated, sortable TVS values. In addition, if you’re not afraid of some data manipulation, you can certainly compute TVS values on your own. Regardless of if you use 4for4.com's TVS values on-line, compute your own TVS data or simply leverage the concepts (without the data), you’ll be better off than your TVS-lacking competitors.

Before the TVS calculation is made, Individual Raw Power Ratings are computed for each NFL player. The Individual Player's Raw Power Rating is derived from a number of variables including a player's durability, consistency, job security, past performance and estimated future workload.

Next, for NFL Player(I), playing Position(J), the TVS Auction Value Power Rating is computed as follows:

The above formula makes use of benchmark values. These benchmarks act as a guidepost to facilitate player comparisons within a position. The benchmark value is strategically selected. For each position, the benchmark gets its value from several of the best players not likely to be drafted (using their Individual Raw Power Rating). This choice is strategic because it measures scoring power relative to a top prospect that's readily available via your league's free agent pool.

While the formula may look incredibly complex to some and rather basic to others, the collective result satisfies a number of important conditions.

The TVS Formula:

i) Proportionally rewards players for outscoring your competitor's players at that position.
ii) Proportionally rewards players for distancing themselves from peer players found in the "free agent pool."
iii) Rewards players in proportion to how many Fantasy starts they'll likely provide you during the season.

In short, TVS is computed for all NFL players that will most likely get drafted. The calculation favors NFL players that greatly distance themselves from other drafted players at that position. In addition, the Power Rating considers the magnitude by which a drafted player distances himself from his peers available on the waiver wire. In addition, the formula leverages historical norms and estimates the number of Fantasy Starts a player with a given Individual Power rating will likely have. The more often a player can effectively start and help you win, the higher his TVS Auction Value Power Rating.

While the number of draftable players varies from league to league, this does not significantly impact the Power Rating because it's a relative-comparison measure. Likewise, the number of starters allowed per league varies. Again, since this is a relative calculation, this does not greatly skew values. The 4for4.com TVS Auction League Price List was optimized for a 10-team league starting one QB, two RBs, three WRs and one TE. Excluding extremes, such as 16-person leagues that start five WRs and similar outliers, the above optimization approximates most Fantasy League parameters reasonably well. Still, in the future, we plan to customize a tool that will allow you to fully optimize the TVS Power Rating using your league's exact parameters.

For many, the 4for4.com TVS approach to player evaluation is new. As such, take some time to think about the underlying principles herein. Please don't disregard the concepts because it's not what you've done in the past or because they sound complex. Keep an open mind. If you do, I'm confident you'll see the benefits and more importantly, gain a competitive advantage.

To sum it all up all, you want to Target, Draft and Start players that outscore your competitor's starting players at that position. Do it and you're going win on a consistent basis! In a nutshell, that's what the TVS system is all about.

Click Here For Auction League Price List Using TVS.