Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 11 Targets

Nov 13, 2018

All you can do is make the most optimal decisions with the information you have at the time. If we all knew Dirk Koetter was going to resume play-calling duties, the Tampa Bay offense would have been viewed differently. If we knew a Freddie Kitchens’ offense would spread the ball around to nine different pass catchers (the most since Week 5), we’d look at Jarvis Landry and David Njoku differently. So while the fantasy playoffs quickly approach, fantasy GMs must stay keep in tune with the news cycle. The football landscape is constantly reforming and our streaming recommendations take in as much of the news and the latest data trends to help make those decisions. With only a few more weeks until the playoffs, it’s time to take the short and long view when making our selections.

Baker Mayfield was our top recommendation and finished Week 10 as the QB5 with 22.6 points. Mariota, despite being down two receivers, won the duel with Tom Brady with 21.3 fantasy points. Overall, the recommendations finished as the QB17 despite the narratives surrounding each game. Injuries and poor defensive showings have opened up a few options for the upcoming week. Let’s review the news and notes before getting into Week 11’s recommendations.

Our Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks have been updated for Week 11. Noticeable changes from Week 10 to Week 11 include:

CAR drops from 17.3 to 19.1 aFPA.
DET drops from 17.7 to 19.4 aFPA
PIT rises from 18.4 to 17.5
GB rises from 18.3 to 17.1 aFPA.

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 45% ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries

Ronald Darby, Eagles (Knee) – Darby’s knee injury appeared serious on the field and the confirmation was more of a formality. Regardless, Darby’s torn ACL only adds to the mounting concern surrounding the reigning Super Bowl champs and their season. Darby was an integral part of their defense (17.7 aFPA), but now Philly will look to the rookie Chandon Sullivan in Darby’s absence as they go on the road to face Drew Brees.

Denzel Perryman, Chargers (Knee) – The Chargers and season-ending injuries are no strangers to each other, but losing your star interior linebacker certainly doesn’t help. Perryman had 30 solo tackles helping to keep LAC’s aFPA to a modest 17.9 despite their other injuries. With the Broncos coming to town fresh off their bye, it should make for an interesting matchup in Week 11.

Dre Kirkpatrick, Bengals (Head) – Cincinnati gave up 509 yards of total offense in Week 11 with Kirkpatrick on the sidelines for most of it. It was reported that the Bengals’ CB left the game in the second quarter with concussion symptoms and did not return to the game. With his status unknown for Week 11, Cincinnati’s defense (19.8 aFPA) could be without a number of their starters on defense as they travel to Baltimore.

Top Streaming Picks

Marcus Mariota at Colts

You can tell yourself a number of stories explaining Mariota’s rough start to 2018. His nerve injury is the most notable, but there are others. The mysterious Rishard Matthews’ injury and departure from Tennessee certainly didn’t help. Mariota having to adjust to the new offensive scheme under Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur has had its growing pains. Delanie Walker’s absence has surely been felt. Throughout all this, the Titans have pulled out some improbable wins, but the confidence in Mariota as a weekly fantasy asset has waned. He’s now thrown for over 200 yards in three straight games and is averaging over five rushing attempts in each. While Corey Davis has been the primary target, Mariota has been able to spread the ball around to at least seven different receivers to maintain his efficiency. Although they are on the road, they go up against the Colts (21.1 aFPA) in Week 11. Indianapolis ranks in the top 10 for plays per game, but in the bottom 10 for passing yards allowed. In addition, game totals in at over 60 percent of Indianapolis’ games have gone over the projected total. Their pace of play and weak defense are a perfect combination for positive game scripts for opponents. After the Titans’ sound win over New England, Mariota should be getting back into our circle of trust as they have a 22.8 implied team total and our top streamer recommendation for Week 11.

Mariota is available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues.