DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 11
Week 11 of the Air Yards Buy-Low Model is here. Last week the model identified four excellent plays and this week it is peppered with some very interesting names.
For new readers, the Buy-Low Model looks at players who have received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards in the previous three weeks and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The list highlights players who are strong candidates to have a performance spike in the near future.
This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.60, lower than last week, but still an extremely solid number.
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In GPPs you need to look beyond the median projections and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart and put up crooked numbers. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
| Name | Predicted FP | Actual FP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 11.4 | 11.1 | -0.3 |
| DeVante Parker | 11.2 | 10.2 | -1.1 |
| Robby Anderson | 10.6 | 7.3 | -3.3 |
| Willie Snead | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 |
| Jordan Reed | 9.8 | 9.1 | -0.7 |
| Michael Crabtree | 9.7 | 8.0 | -1.8 |
| Jarvis Landry | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9.4 | 9.3 | -0.2 |
| Golden Tate | 9.4 | 8.0 | -1.4 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 9.1 | 8.2 | -0.9 |
| David Moore (SEA) | 8.9 | 8.6 | -0.3 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8.8 | 8.1 | -0.7 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8.8 | 7.3 | -1.5 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 8.5 | 7.6 | -0.9 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 8.3 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 7.4 | 4.9 | -2.6 |
| Michael Gallup | 7.4 | 6.8 | -0.6 |
| Devin Funchess | 7.3 | 6.8 | -0.6 |
| David Grinnage | 7.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 7.2 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7.1 | 6.4 | -0.8 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 7.1 | 6.4 | -0.7 |
| John Brown | 7.0 | 5.3 | -1.8 |
Key Takeaways
- Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker, Robby Anderson, Jarvis Landry, and Rob Gronkowski are on a BYE. I list BYE week players for transparency and tracking.
- Willie Snead ($4,300 DK/$5,300 FD) is very cheap and is leading the Ravens in Weighted Opportunity over the past three weeks. Over that period he's seen 19 targets and caught 12 balls for 112 yards, 67 of which were Yards After the Catch. Fade the Cinncinati defense narrative and buy the volume.
- Golden Tate ($5,500 DK/$6,600 FD) had a first week to forget in Philadelphia. He was on the field for just 18 offensive snaps, which is not going to lead to a good fantasy week. Instead of Tate, the clear play is to use Alshon Jeffery ($6,300 DK/$7,300 FD) who makes the list for the first time this season and is confirmed good in this system. Jeffery's 13 targets over the past three weeks are tied for the team lead and his Weighted Opportunity Rating is second to Nelson Agholor. A rebound for a weapon like Jeffery is probably in store as Carson Wentz has been playing excellent football since returning from his injury.
- T.Y. Hilton ($6,100 DK/$6,800 FD) looks like a real value this week. I always get excited when a good player is on the list, as they are by far the best bets to smash. Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense has been playing well enough to support a breakout game, and my gritty gut says this is the week against a Tennesee defense ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- REDACTED Benjamin is off the list!!!!! Praise be. May he never return, and may God have mercy on his soul.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images.
