Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 12 Targets

Nov 20, 2018

Plate tectonics. It’s one of the best descriptions for the NFL and fantasy football. The league is slow to change, but as injuries and new offensive schemes find life you can see the landscape changing. We can see how the futures of players and even franchises change in a single game. It’s a seismic shift in our evaluations and outlook on our teams. It’s these moments and narratives that open and close opportunity windows and holds our excitement week in and week out.

Marcus Mariota was our top streaming recommendation for Week 11. Despite being on the road, this was a case of the results not meeting the process. Indianapolis was missing their starting safety and hadn’t recorded a sack in two games. They got to Mariota four times before he was injured in the second quarter. His 3.1 fantasy points probably hurt more than helped, but as always, we trust in The Process. Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson posted respectable numbers (QB 13 and 17, respectively) aiding some of the community. Now, with the playoffs looming and a holiday week upon us, it’s time to focus on the upcoming slate.

Our first step in the process is to look at 4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) tool which is updated each week. Noticeable changes from Week 11 to Week 12 include:

PHI has dropped to 20.4 aFPA (playing against Drew Brees can do that)
LAR has dropped to 20.4 aFPA (Can we just watch KC vs LAR every day?)
PIT has risen to 15.5 aFPA
NO has risen to 18.9 aFPA (pour one out for Carson Wentz)

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40% ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries

Corey Liuget, Chargers (Quad) – I can’t think of a season where the Chargers haven’t sustained multiple catastrophic injuries to their personnel and here we are again. The defensive end tore his quad tendon against the Broncos and is out for the season. Joey Bosa made his comeback to aid the struggling defense (16.6 aFPA), but the loss will surely be felt over the coming weeks. They play host to the Cardinals in Week 12.

Sidney Jones, Avonte Maddox and Rasul Douglas, Eagles (Hamstring, Shoulder) – The Eagles were already struggling with the loss of Ronald Darby and losing three more corners won’t make things easier. The Saints immediately capitalized on the weakened defense as they capped their victory in Week 11. The reigning Super Bowl champs (20.4 aFPA) need a win in Week 12 as they host the Giants.

Deone Buchannon, Cardinals (Chest) – The Arizona linebacker left the Week 11 contest against the Raiders in the fourth quarter. He was unable to return, but due to the lateness of the injury, there’s no indication of its severity. The Cardinals (12.7 aFPA) will need all hands on deck as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers in Week 12.

Top Streaming Picks

Jameis Winston vs 49ers

So, we’ve figured out the threshold. If you throw 3 interceptions in a game, you get benched. This is no way to run a franchise, but it provides yet another high-upside option on the waiver wire. Winston finished Week 11 as the QB13 after taking over for Fitzpatrick in the third quarter. That was on the road against a stingy Giants defense (15.2 aFPA). Week 12? Winston is at home against the 49ers in what is projected to be the second-highest scoring game of the week. O.J. Howard’s ankle injury diminishes the offense somewhat, but the remaining playmakers are in favorable spots. Slot receivers have made their days against San Francisco (Larry Fitzgerald in Week 8, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods in Week 7). Outside receivers have hurt them as well (Odell Beckham in Week 10). Winston has the offensive personnel to address all of San Francisco’s inefficiencies on defense (20.1 aFPA). With a 29.3 implied team total at home, Winston is easily our best recommendation for Week 12.

Winston is available in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues.