DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 13

Nov 28, 2018

The Week 13 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

RB Saquon Barkley ($8,600 FD/$7,900 DK)

This play is based on trusting a stud over a top-notch defense. Barkley sees over 20 percent of the Giants' team targets and red zone targets, making him an integral part of the Giants' game plan against an elite pass rush. The Bears, with stud pass-rusher Khalil Mack, can get after the quarterback in a hurry. This week, we should see an uptick in Barkley's targets out of the backfield. Additionally, the Giants squandered a win last week while only giving Barkley five touches in the second half. Against Chicago, their game plan should revolve around the rookie runner. We can take advantage of him being the lowest-owned back of the top tier.