DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 16

Dec 20, 2018

The Week 16 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Mitch Trubisky ($7,900 FD/$6,300 DK)

Trubisky has a great matchup with the fourth-worst aFPA to quarterback defense in the 49ers. The Bears are still trying to win, so there isn't much thought of anyone resting. What I like about Trubisky this week, in particular, is that he has been fairly quiet recently which will keep ownership fairly low. He's gone for four and 19 fantasy points in the last two weeks and missed the two games before those. He's currently not on anyone's radar. We've seen his ceiling, however. In Week 10 against Detroit, he scored three times through the air and once on the ground to rack up a 34-point fantasy day. And lest we forget, he threw for six touchdown passes in Week 4 against the Buccaneers. It's important when we roster players, especially in tournaments, that they have a realistic ceiling outcome that can win us a GPP and Trubisky definitely does.