DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 3

Sep 19, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Cam Newton ($7,900 FD/$6,000 DK), QB Kyle Allen ($6,000 FD/$4,000 DK) @ Cardinals

I like targeting the Panthers' passing attack regardless of who starts this week. Both of these teams rank in the top five in neutral passing rate and in the top six in neutral pace. If Cam starts, we should be quite confident those factors will come into play. If Allen starts, we get a min-priced quarterback who will likely be owned in fewer than 1% of lineups to give us an extremely unique roster construction. Since it will take almost nothing to be overweight on Allen, it’s worth a small gamble that the offense runs at a similar pace with him under center. Only two teams have allowed more points to quarterbacks through two weeks than the Cardinals. However, initial ownership projections show Carolina’s passing game in the bottom half of the league in projected total ownership—it will drop even further if Cam sits.