Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 7 Targets

Oct 15, 2019

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We’re nearing the halfway mark of the NFL season and we’re essentially at a fork in the road. On the one hand, we have our preseason priors. The undefeated 49ers notching convincing wins over the Browns and Rams have analysts (including myself) re-examining what we think about…everything. Like Kyle Shanahan, Robert Saleh, and the broken opponents they’ve left in their 5-0 wake. On the other hand, the community has also begun looking ahead. Patrick Mahomes isn’t the beginning and end of that list anymore. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson have legitimate claims to that title with Christian McCaffrey screaming off in the distance, “Running backs matter!” The overall takeaway? Many of our thoughts coming into the season were wrong. It was inevitable. We’re now left to use the data in front of us to push forward as we head into Week 7.

Other Week 7 Streaming Articles: TE | K | D/ST

There are four teams on a bye (Cleveland, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh) with notable assets missing from your lineup. It’ll likely stretch your bench causing some hard decisions on who to hold depending on your record. Let’s dive into the injuries, tools, and matchups to help give some clarity ahead of next week’s games.

Week 6 Review

Process over results and Week 6’s process got us to a few viable plays:

Kyle Allen – 17.4 points (QB14)
Teddy Bridgewater – 13.6 points (QB17)
Kirk Cousins – 27.3 points (QB6)
Gardner Minshew – 4.6 (QB26)

Allen and Cousins were both allowed to take advantage of their respective matchups. Carolina attempted the most passes of 10 air yards or greater with Allen under center while Cousins took six shots of 20-plus air yards. It was the most so far this season and two of those resulted in a touchdown. Their results met expectations while Bridgewater and Minshew faltered. The hope is that Alvin Kamara's ankle and Marshon Lattimore’s coverage hindered both of their outings. However, we did miss on Case Keenum. Xavien Howard had been limited by a knee injury all week reducing Miami’s number of reliable defensive players to zero. Washington’s horrific team management could have been overlooked as the perfect matchup for Terry McLaurin awaited. Don’t worry. Miami will be discussed shortly after we go through the defensive rankings and injuries.

Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed

Next, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks fresh out for the 2019 season. Injuries and high-scoring offenses have begun to take their toll. With a few weeks of data, we can begin to target these teams in the future. Notable rankings for defensive units include:

Dallas falls 10 spots to #20 (17.3 aFPA)
Seattle falls 4 spots to #23 (19.1 aFPA)
Detroit falls 3 spots to #12 (15.2 aFPA)
Houston rises 4 spots to #21 (18.1 aFPA)
New York (Jets) rises 4 spots to #10 (14.4 aFPA)
New Orleans jumps 6 spots to #16 (16.7 aFPA)

The Jets rallied around the return of 'Sammy Spleen' against Dallas without their starting offensive tackle and losing Amari Cooper early in the game. In that same game, Dallas' lapses on defense got the best of them as Robby Anderson got loose on a deep touchdown pass. The chunk plays combined with short-yardage gains by Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas proved too much for the Cowboys. Detroit, despite losing the game in a wild finish on Monday night, still held Aaron Rodgers to less than 300 yards passing and got an interception on a bobbled pass. Their change in rank reflects more on the risers as we look ahead to Week 7.

Key Defensive Injuries

Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Dre Kirkpatrick (Bengals, Knee) – Add injury to insult as the winless Bengals lost their veteran CB in the first half against the Ravens. Cincinnati’s defense (19.2 aFPA) has allowed a QB1 performance the past three weeks with other starters already playing through various injuries. While the team waits on Kirkpatrick’s MRI results, Minshew-mania looks to get back on track as the Jaguars head to Cincinnati in Week 8.

Nigel Bradham (Eagles, Knee) – The 30-year-old starting linebacker was forced out of their Week 6 match against Minnesota late in the first half. Philadelphia’s defensive woes extend past their interior personnel as they’ve given up over 300 yards passing four times this season. Bradham was in on 98.5% of the team’s defensive snaps prior to his injury. They’ll need to figure out their issues on defense quick with a divisional matchup ahead of them against the Cowboys in Week 8.

Other Notable Injuries: Avery Moss (Dolphins, Concussion), Ken Webster (Dolphins, Leg), Bradley Roby (Texans, Hamstring), John Johnson III (Rams, Shoulder), Jayon Brown (Titans, Groin), Cody Davis (Jaguars, Hamstring)