DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 8

Oct 24, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Matthew Stafford ($7,700 FD/$6,100 DK) vs. Giants

There are six teams on the main slate with implied totals of at least 28 points so an offense in a great spot is sure to get overlooked. The Lions passing game is where I’m looking to diverge from the crowd. Running back Ty Johnson is expected to be one of, if not the, highest owned players on the slate so rolling out Stafford and Co. is a great leverage play or can serve as a way to make Johnson lineups unique. The Giants defense has been one of the worst in the league in terms of defending the deep ball, so look for Detroit’s downfield threats to get behind the defense a couple of times. Leverage scores suggest being slightly underweight on Stafford but I would expect him to come in much closer to his floor ownership projection rather than his ceiling. There are a lot of offenses that will be tough to completely fade, so going heavy on Stafford will be difficult, but a 15% portfolio share should put owners well ahead of the field.