NBA Player Prop Bets: Playoff Plus Odds
Today blesses us with an enticing four-game slate featuring matchups that are locked in at 2-1. Jumping into the details of these games we notice three lower seeds (Atlanta Hawks, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks) looking to secure their third win at home, while the Brooklyn Nets look to see if they can fend off the Boston Celtics from evening up the series. With games spread throughout this Sunday, let’s skip the small talk and get to talking money. I’m looking to hop on some lucrative odds today but when looking for differentiating value don't miss your opportunity to compare today’s prop bets by checking out our NBA Player Prop Tool!
Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
BetMGM Player Prop Bets (May 30, 2021)
Luka Doncic Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
Luka has been an offensive juggernaut this year and his efficiency through the first three games of this Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Clippers series is trending positively following his near 44-point triple-double in Game 3. Currently averaging 38 points, 8.7 rebounds and 9 assists per game with shooting splits of 51.9/45.9/48.1, Doncic is unquestionably the player of the playoffs thus far. Most importantly, for this prop, is the fact Doncic has gone 5/11, 5/13 and 7/13 from deep to start this series.
Despite the Los Angeles Clippers stepping up their defensive effort in Game 3, they have allowed a playoff-high 55 made three-pointers over the last three games. With Dallas making 18.3 threes per game while shooting 50.5% from behind the arc, we love the opportunity here for Doncic to continue his offensive tear and knockdown more than three threes for the fourth time this series.
Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1.1 units.
FanDuel Player Prop Bets (May 30, 2021)
John Collins Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+180)
On the season, Atlanta has fared much better beyond the arc in games played at home in State Farm Arena, as opposed to games on the road—shooting 38.8% from three at home but only 35.9% on the road. John Collins has aligned with this team trend, shooting 41.3% from deep in Atlanta, while making only 38.5% of his threes on the road. Over the month of May, Collins is 19/40 from three, making 2+ threes in nine of his last 13 contests.
In this Atlanta Hawks-New York Knicks series he's converted two threes in two of the three games, with the only time he failed to make a three being in the game he had five personal fouls in 14 minutes of play. These odds are too juicy to not take a chance on John Collins converting two threes for the eighth time here in May.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.8 units.
Deandre Ayton Over 16.5 Points (+102)
The Los Angeles Lakers have not had an answer for Deandre Ayton throughout the 2020-2021 NBA Season, and the playoffs have been no different. I’m shocked to see favorable odds for Ayton to underperform based on his performance over the six matchups this year against the Lakers. Below is a chart displaying his stat line over these six games.
| Game | Minutes | Points | FGM/FGA | FG% | Rebounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Playoff Game 3 | 41 | 22 | 11/15 | 73% | 11 |
| Playoff Game 2 | 42 | 22 | 11/13 | 85% | 10 |
| Playoff Game 1 | 36 | 21 | 10/11 | 91% | 16 |
| Regular Game 3 | 32 | 6 | 3/3 | 100% | 6 |
| Regular Game 2 | 32 | 26 | 10/13 | 77% | 8 |
| Regular Game 1 | 24 | 17 | 7/14 | 50% | 6 |
| Averages | 34.5 | 19 | 52/69 | 75% | 9.5 |
Nearly averaging a double-double at 19 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, while shooting an astounding 52/69 from the field this year against the Lakers, Ayton is solidifying himself as one of the premier young big men in the Association. With Chris Paul as his floor general, Ayton has pushed his shooting efficiencies to new career-highs this season. In addition to this points prop, I’m also interested in playing the over on FanDuel's 27.5 Points + Rebounds (P+R) for Ayton with odds at (-106). He has surpassed both these overs through the first three games of the playoffs as well as hitting the over in points in five-of-six matchups against the Lakers and the P+R in four-of-six matchups.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.02 units.
William Hill Player Prop Bets (May 30, 2021)
Maxi Kleber Over 1.5 Threes (-110)
Through the first three games of the series, Maxi Kleber is 7/11 from beyond the arc while playing 34+ minutes a night. We love the odds here for Maxi Kleber to knock down a pair of triples tonight. My only hesitance lies in the report of Achilles soreness Kleber is currently dealing with which could restrict his playing time.
Risk: 1.1 units on William Hill to win 1 unit.
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