NBA Player Prop Bets: Porzingis PRA-blems

As nice as the NBA playoffs can be in terms of drilling down on player roles and their tendencies within those roles, when a new round and opponent comes about, that all gets reset. With the second round on the horizon, be sure to keep in mind what a team has done well and how that plays in their new context. Make sure to look at the 4for4 NBA Player Prop Tool while getting ready for the second round. For now, there is one series left in the first round, so make it a profitable start to the weekend.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 4, 2021)

Kristaps Porzingis Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)

Kristaps Porzingis was brought to Dallas to be the second option for Luka Doncic in the playoffs. Thus far, Porzingis has disappointed, even getting his minutes capped in game five by splitting minutes with Maxi Kleber. With that said, the Mavericks are on the verge of winning their series against the Clippers.

On the surface, a 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) prop for someone who averaged 30.6 PRA in the regular season would scream the over, but that is not the case with Porzingis. In the playoffs, Tim Hardaway Jr. and his hot shooting has vaulted him to the second option and relegated Porzingis to the pick-and-pop guy, taking 10.6 field goal attempts per game in the playoffs versus 15.9 in the regular season.

The story is similar on the glass, where Porzingis’s aggression has vanished. In the regular season, Porzingis averaged 8.9 rebounds on 13.7 rebounding chances and 3.5 contested rebounds per game. In this Clippers series, those have plummeted to 4.4 rebounds on 9.0 rebounding chances and 1.0 contested rebounds per game. So, there are not only fewer opportunities but he is less efficient in the opportunities he gets. Even his assists have ticked down from 1.6 per game to 1.0 per game.

Part of this is the emergence of Hardaway, part has to be the pace of this series that is at a crawl. This series is averaging 91.6 possessions per game, a full 6.34 possessions per game slower than their regular season pace. For perspective, 91.6 possessions would have been the slowest pace in the regular season of any team by 4.28 possessions per game.

Risk: 1.06 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (June 4, 2021)

Marcus Morris Over 4.5 Rebounds (+100)

The playoffs are all about adjustments and Marcus Morris’s rebounding numbers have been the beneficiary of one of the more significant changes the Clippers have made. In the first three games, Morris was on the court primarily with a big and averaged 1.7 rebounds on 5.0 rebounding chances. With Ivica Zubac getting picked on by Luka Doncic, Clippers coach Ty Lue decided to sit Zubac and start Morris at center.

In the two games since Morris has been in the middle, his production has gone through the roof, averaging 7.5 rebounds on 11.0 rebounding chances. One of the biggest indicators of the difference outside of raw production is the average distance from the basket for each rebound. When Zubac started, the average distance of a Morris rebound was 11 feet. Since being the starting center, that number has been cut almost in half to 5.8 feet. Essentially, Morris is closer to the basket more often, so he is in position for more rebounds. Is that just logic? Yes. Is it logic that is not being baked into this number enough? Also, yes.

The Clippers have a +9.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass, with Morris at center in this series, so expect that alignment and production to continue.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Nicolas Batum Over 8.5 Points (+100)

With Zubac out of the starting lineup and his minutes dwindling, Batum has scooped many of those up. Batum’s offensive versatility has opened the floor more for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to have driving lanes. Batum shoots 40% from three-point range and has a knack for offensive spacing.

As Morris plays the center role on defense, Batum functionally plays it offensively, unlike in the regular season. In the regular season, Batum took 21% of his shots from the rim and 63% of his shots from behind the arc. In the playoffs, Batum’s shots at the rim have jumped to 34%, and behind the line have fallen to 51%.

This is significant because, in this series, the Mavericks are allowing the highest shooting percentage at the rim, outside of the Sixers, who are currently without Joel Embiid. While a player will generally have a higher ceiling if he is taking more three-pointers, with a points prop at 8.5, the ceiling isn’t as much of the goal as a high floor.

In this series, Batum has not scored fewer than eight points, his minutes have steadily increased and he has hit double figures in each game this series where he has played at least 30 minutes. There are no indications that will slow in game six. On top of that, Batum’s free-throw attempts have increased as the series has progressed as well, going from zero to one, to two to four, and 4 again. With a prop as low as 8.5, every opportunity at the line for an 82% free-throw shooter matters.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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