Week 4 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Oct 01, 2021

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Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it does get easier to navigate as the season moves along. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. I'll feel more confident about using in-season data to make decisions once we get into Week 6 and beyond, but for now, we have to use what we have.

Whenever possible, but especially early in the season, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our scheduled-adjust fantasy points allowed tool here at 4for4 is a perfect example of this. It's not a relevant metric in the context of my analysis here, but the point is, it tells a more useful truth than its more commonly used counterparts.

In this space, I'll continue to focus on what I think is the biggest inefficiency in the market, and that's individual team totals. I know leaning under is optimal, but you'll find a lot of overs here. I'm sorry.

Let's move forward and take a look at Week 4's plays.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.