Week 6 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
New at 4for4: The PrizePicks Prop Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 5 PrizePicks Record: 3-4
Season Record: 22-17
DeVante Parker did not play Week 5 so his pick was removed from last week’s record. Massive misses included the Matt Ryan and Zach Wilson picks. Time to get back on the right side of things.
Week 6 Picks
Mac Jones Under 16.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 15.0
Part of taking the under is Mac Jones’s receiving options. His best receiver, Jakobi Meyers, has as many touchdown catches as you and I. Jones has also topped 16 fantasy points just once this season—Week 5 against Dallas when he had 16.9. In three home games, Jones is averaging 14.57 fantasy points. The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed 20.95 fantasy points to opposing QBs in two road games, with one being Tom Brady’s blow-up Week 1 (27.2 points).
Ricky Seals-Jones Over 7.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 8.8
Imagine quitting Ricky Seals-Jones. The Washington starting tight end gets whatever the Chiefs defense is at home. Kansas City has allowed at least one tight end to top seven fantasy points in four of five games. Five tight ends have topped double-digit fantasy points against K.C., as their defense allows an average of 6.2 receptions and 93.2 receiving yards per game. Seals-Jones has topped this prop in two games—once as Logan Thomas’s back-up. He has played at least 92% of snaps the past two weeks, giving him ample opportunity to run routes against the 19th-ranked defense against tight ends, according to our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric.
James Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 94.3
The Miami Dolphins are 31st in running back aFPA and have allowed individual rushers to top 72.5 yards in four of five games. James Robinson has topped this total in three straight games. The Illinois State product has had at least 15 carries in three straight games. Jacksonville is only a three-point underdog against Miami in London. Both teams do not play with haste, but beyond pace of play, I expect Robinson to be a focal point as the Jaguars look to control the clock with Tua Tagovailoa on the verge of returning.
Najee Harris Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 78.8
I think the venerable John Paulsen is being conservative on Najee Harris’s rushing projection with the Seattle Seahawks defense coming to town. Seattle ranks 28th in running back aFPA and Harris just demolished the eighth-ranked Broncos defense at home. With Geno Smith in charge for Seattle, I expect a convincing Steelers win. Harris is averaging 15.6 carries per game and saw a season-high 23 Week 6. Ben Roethlisberger may not be in danger against Seattle’s pass rush but why risk him with such a talented and versatile player in the backfield?
Robert Tonyan Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 31.6
Robert Tonyan has not topped 20.5 receiving yards in four of five weeks. Tonyan has not topped 10 receiving yards in four of five weeks. The Chicago Bears are the best at stopping tight ends with Roquan Smith blanketing opposing tight ends. The return of Randall Cobb has not been the best for Tonyan, and Cobb has a history of burning the Bears. PrizePicks has a good number here and taking the under is a risk, but Tonyan has been irrelevant in four games this season.
Terry McLaurin Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 88.5
Terry McLaurin’s yardage totals have been inconsistent through five weeks. His Week 6 matchup is projected to be his best before the team’s Week 9 bye. Kansas City is 28th in aFPA against wide receivers and has allowed at least one outside receiver to top 79.5 yards in three of five weeks. McLaurin has seen double-digit targets in three of five games, including two straight. McLaurin also tops our Week 6 Breakout Receiver Model. Expect the same in a contest where Washington will be playing catch-up.
NOTE: McLaurin is listed as questionable for Week 6.
Kyler Murray Under 280.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 269.9
The right shoulder issue is a concern. Murray finished Week 5 with his lowest passing yards, YPA and YPR of this season. The Browns defense is facing a Cardinals offensive line that is already without its center and could be without Kelvin Beachum. The Browns pass defense has only allowed 280.5 yards twice this season and it took monster games from Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert (at home) to top that number. Murray and company may need a bit of luck to produce points and win this week.
