2021-22 NBA Futures Betting Preview: Odds, Takeaways & Best Bets

Oct 17, 2021

4for4 Illustrations/Doug Houvener

The 2021-22 NBA season is just about to tip-off, so let’s take a look at futures betting odds for individual season-long awards. These are not only fun tickets to hold throughout the season, but great ways to find value outside of win totals for teams you expect to succeed. Let’s go through each award, see what we can learn from the past, review the odds and find worthwhile wagers to bet.

Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Check Discord for real-time updates on bets and odds.
Betting lines referenced in recommended bets to place/avoid are DraftKings specific.
Reference our NBA Odds & Futures Page for updated odds.

Editor's Note: This is a free preview of our Betting Package. Sign up for full access to our premium betting content and tools.

Most Valuable Player

Past 10 Winners

2021: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
2018: James Harden (HOU)
2017: Russell Westbrook (OKC)
2016: Steph Curry (GSW)
2015: Steph Curry (GSW)
2014: Kevin Durant (OKC)
2013: LeBron James (CLE)
2012: LeBron James (CLE)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

The MVP is not just arguably the best player in the league for that season, but also a clear candidate for the Hall of Fame.
Nine of the past 10 MVPs played for a team with either a top-three or top-four record. The exception to this rule was the first player to average a triple-double since the 1960s.
Voters are not afraid to award back-to-back MVP awards to the same player. It’s happened three times in the last 10 years.
Nikola Jokic was the first center to win the award since Shaquille O'Neal won in 1999-2000.
To summarize: We want someone who can be the best player in the league on one of the best teams in the league, and ideally not a center

Current Best MVP Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Luka Doncic +380

Luka Doncic is again the preseason favorite to win this award. He might be the best player, but the Mavericks will be hard-pressed to be one of the best teams. Perhaps we can bet on him to win the MVP later in the season at a better number, but please don’t wager your money on him at this price.

Kevin Durant +600 & James Harden +2000

Teammates cannibalize votes from one another in award markets. Unless Kevin Durant or James Harden plays markedly better, it will be too hard for them to collect enough individual votes.

Joel Embiid +800

If this were 10-1 or better, I'd bet it. Unfortunately, it's not. Joel Embiid could have easily been the MVP last season if it weren't for his late-season injury. He becomes even more valuable to the Sixers if Ben Simmons leaves town, but it’s too small of a number to bet on at this moment. Let’s see what happens with Simmons.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +800

Giannis Antekoounmpo is another player I wouldn’t mind at double digits, but not at 8-1. The Bucks showed us last year they were willing to sacrifice regular-season wins for a better postseason performance. There is certainly a chance he rips through the league as we saw in past years, but let’s wait and see how he looks. Worst case, this price should still be available if he starts the season well.

Steph Curry +900

I can make a case for there being just a little bit of a value on Steph Curry, but I have to stretch to make the case. If Klay Thompson can return at 80% of what he was and the Warriors' offseason additions work as well as they seem they might, then this team might win their division and compete for the best record in the league. If that happens, Curry will get votes for this award, even if he is mediocre. At 9-1, it’s just too many things to parlay together to justify.

Damian Lillard +1400

Do you want to bet on a player who asked to leave his team, changed his mind and forced his team to fire one of the better coaches of the last decade to make him feel better at less than 20-1 odds? Oh, and his team is almost certainly not going to have one of the best records in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic +1500

We know voters don’t mind a back-to-back MVP winner. With Jamal Murray out for the season, the Nuggets will rely more on Nikola Jokic. Two obstacles with Jokic winning: Denver is unlikely to be among the teams with the most wins and the price is not big enough to be considered a value.

LeBron James +1800 & Anthony Davis +3000

See the Kevin Durant/James Harden section, but just pretend the team is worse.

Trae Young +2000

This was another wager I almost made, but I was hoping for at least 30-to-1 odds. Atlanta could be a top-three team in the East, but Trae Young would have to make the very difficult leap from being a great NBA player to being a star player. There are better ways to channel your money if you’re optimistic about Atlanta.

Devin Booker +2500 & Chris Paul +8000

The prices are better than other teammate options mentioned earlier, but it’s also harder for the Suns to repeat last season’s success, and the vote split problem is likely even worse in this scenario.

Russell Westbrook +2500

I’ll try to take this seriously. Russell Westbrook averaged 22-11-11 last season and received just one vote for this award—a third-place vote. He is now on a team where he is third in line for touches this season. Please, if you follow any of my advice ever in your entire life, don’t bet on Westbrook win the MVP award. Put the money in an envelope and mail it to me if you really want—I will happily mail it back to you at the end of the season instead of you just losing it.

Bets to Place

None. Sorry, I know this is a bummer, but let me explain. I wanted to start with the MVP award because not only is it one of the most prestigious awards in all of basketball, but I consider it arguably the most meaningful award in all of sports. The list of winners is truly impressive. As with all things, you can quibble over a few decisions, but every winner is a Hall of Famer and someone who defined that season. With the conglomeration of star players on some teams and the annoyingly efficient pricing in the market, I cannot, in good faith, advise a wager at this time. We’ll likely find something during the season, and I promise to let you know. Oh, and the next section has plenty of wagers.

Most Improved Player

Past 10 Winners

2021: Julius Randle (NYK)
2020: Brandon Ingram (NOP)
2019: Pascal Siakam (TOR)
2018: Victor Oladipo (IND)
2017: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
2016: CJ McCollum (POR)
2015: Jimmy Butler (CHI)
2014: Goran Dragic (PHX)
2013: Paul George (IND)
2012: Ryan Anderson (ORL)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

The last 10 winners combined to play 803 games and started in 802 of them in the seasons they won. Pascal Siakam came off the bench in the third game of the season he won.
On average, the Most Improved Player is in his fourth season. Only three of the last 10 were past their fourth season in the NBA.
Nine out of the last 10 winners played on winning teams, with an average win rate of 53.6%
The winner increased their points per game (PPG) by 6.7, rebounds per game (RPG) by 1.6 and assists per game (APG) by 1.5 on average.
Six out of the last 10 winners made the All-Star Team.
To summarize: We want a starter on a winning team, in his first four years in the league, with an opportunity to increase his PPG, RPG and APG totals, who also might be an All-Star.

Current Best MIP Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Michael Porter Jr. & Kevin Porter Jr. +1000

Who knew we had two Porter Juniors? Guess what? They’re tied as the favorites to win this award at +1000. Michael Porter Jr. faces too much competition for touches for the statistical improvements we often see from winners. Kevin Porter Jr. might not start all year, will not be on a team with a winning record and has close to a zero percent chance of being an All-Star. Avoid the Porters.

Jordan Poole +1200

Jordan Poole might win, but that’s much too small of a number for someone who is too far down the food chain to score enough points.

Jaren Jackson Jr. +1600

Jaren Jackson Jr. has yet to be healthy in his NBA career. Centers generally do poorly in this award, and I’m not even sure he’s the starting center for his own team.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander +1800

Playing for one of the worst teams in the league, Shai Gilgeous Alexander may have averaged too many points to drive the increase voters like. He will also be hard-pressed to make the All-Star team.

Zion Williamson +2000

Zion Williamson is too highly praised to win this award. Oh, and the Pelicans might just be awful again. If you think that last thought is incorrect, bet on him to be MVP or the Pelicans to make the playoffs, but this is the wrong market.

Collin Sexton +2000

Collin Sexton might be able to improve enough to deserve consideration, but the Cavaliers will still likely be too terrible for him to be seriously considered.

Terance Mann +2500

Terance Mann is far too unlikely to start to garner attention for this award. Go buy some of his trading cards or Top Shot moments. Maybe even draft him in fantasy, but don’t let your excitement lead you to waste money in a market not suited to his situation.

Bets to Place

OG Anunoby +2000

This is one of the prices that has dropped the most, and I still like it anyway. The Raptors are in line for a winning season and a huge part of that will be because of OG Anunoby. He was benched in the second half of last season as the Raptors embraced the tank. This makes him wildly underrated to end the year and he is one of the players with the easiest path to becoming a starter, making big improvements in his basic stat averages and play for a winning team. He might even be an All-Star.

Ja Morant +2500

Ja Morant played through an injury last season that held him back from achieving the growth we expected. This season he starts the year with fresh legs as the leader of a young team ready for another step towards being a serious contender. The needed increases in PPG, RPG and APG could be tough given how high his averages were last season, but everything else is in place for Morant to be a top choice for this award.

Keldon Johnson +3500

Every four years we have the Olympics and we see a few younger players in the NBA spend those weeks learning from some of the best players in the world. Those less-experienced athletes often come back the following season with a better work ethic after learning from and seeing what some of the very best do every day. Keldon Johnson is one of the ideal candidates for this bump and is also on a team that just shipped out all of its veteran players. The Spurs may struggle to win more than half of their games, but if they do, Johnson will be a big part of that accomplishment. He might do so well in each other category that it doesn’t matter.

Kyle Kuzma +5000

In 2018-19, Kyle Kuzma finished his second season as a starter for the Lakers. He averaged over 18 points, was a strong defender and was a key part of the Anthony Davis trade discussions. Then some guy named “LeBron James” came to town, pushing him to the bench—the memory of a promising, young starter was lost. Fast forward to today, and Kuzma is out of L.A. and in Washington, and back to being a clear starter. I expect him to easily increase his averages and be part of a Washington team that should not only be better than the market expects, but possibly downright good. In a lot of ways, this is a bet on the team being good, but Kuzma is in a perfect spot to remind us he once was possibly a very good starter in this league

Matisse Thybulle +8000

Matisse Thybulle is another perfect candidate for the Olympic bump, albeit to a lesser degree since he played for Australia and not the United States. To be clear, the Australian team is very good and full of veterans, but he didn’t play with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Either way, Thybulle showed clearly that he is able to perform in important competitions at a high level. We also have the possibility that Ben Simmons might not be in Philadelphia much longer. Thybulle is the easy choice to replace Simmons in the starting lineup. The hang-up is he will have to take a big step forward to score enough points per game to garner the attention required. At this big of a number, I’m happy to take a chance that a smart player, who improved his shot every year can find enough easy shots per game playing with Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris.

Markelle Fultz +8000

Okay, I get it. Take a minute to stop laughing. Yes, I know this means Markelle Fultz will have to be healthy and the Magic will have to not be terrible, but I don’t think it’s too crazy to expect those things to happen. The health is my biggest concern, but as a former No.1 overall pick who’s taken about as much heat as any top draft pick to struggle as much as he has, the bar for him is set very low. Remember, the media votes on these awards and they love a good story. On some level, if Fultz is good enough, he’ll get votes just an apology from people who have to interview him for years to come. He has a good shot at being the starting point guard all year, meaning he should easily put up the stats needed. As for my Magic optimism, I see no reason this team can’t be last year’s Charlotte Hornets. It’s a deep team full of talented youngsters who will be fighting every day for their chance to make it in this league. In a year likely to be full of injuries and teams resting players, the starting point guard of a deep team that exceeded expectations by taking advantage of those injured and tired teams would be a great candidate to win the Most Improved award.

Rookie of the Year

Past 10 Winners

2021: LaMelo Ball (CHA)
2020: Ja Morant (MEM)
2019: Luka Doncic (DAL)
2018: Ben Simmons (PHI)
2017: Malcolm Brogdon (MIL)
2016: Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)
2015: Andrew Wiggins (MIN)
2014: Michael Carter-Williams (PHI)
2013: Damian Lillard (POR)
2012: Kyrie Irving (CLE)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

Seven of the last 10 winners were top-three NBA Draft picks. Malcolm Brogdon, who was picked 36th overall, was the first ROY winner taken after the 11th pick since 1987-88 and the first winner after the 18th pick since 1957-58.
Only one of the last 10 winners played on a winning team with an average win rate of 39.7%.
Eight of the last 10 winners started every game in which they played
The voters' choice has averaged 17-5-5.
To summarize: We’re looking for high draft picks who are Day One starters who can put up a good stat line.

Current Best ROY Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Jalen Green +200

The odds-on favorite and number two overall pick, Jalen Green, is a likely immediate starter who should have the opportunity to score a lot of points. The market has done a fine job selecting their favorite and an even more annoyingly good job at setting a price that’s too low to be a value.

Cade Cunningham +300

Number one in the draft, but second in this betting market. Cade Cunningham has an even more clear role as an early-season starter than Green, but he is on a worse team and could struggle to have enough help to reach the 17-5-5 average line.

Jalen Suggs +900

Jalen Suggs could become the starter at some point during the year, but there is far too much competition at guard in Orlando to feel confident about a wager on him at this point.

Evan Mobley +900

Just one center has won this award in the last 10 years. It can be difficult for a big man to adapt quickly in their rookie season and score a lot of points during the course of the season. Compound that with Evan Mobley’s low position in the pecking order in Cleveland and I wouldn’t play this even if the number were twice as big.

Alperen Sengun +1300

I actually don’t hate this bet, but Alperen Sengun will be sharing touches and votes with Jalen Green. Sengun is not only handling the transition to the NBA as a big man, but he is also managing the transition from playing in Turkey last season.

Scottie Barnes +1400

This will likely be a bet at some point, but not at this time and price. Scottie Barnes won’t start for the Raptors to begin the season, but he could earn a starting spot down the line. At that point, we can make a bet at a certainly better price.

Davion Mitchell +1800

Just what the Kings needed, another guard. Davion Mitchell is very talented and would be an intriguing choice on any other team, but he’s behind De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton on the roster. That means little opportunity to have the ball and even less of a chance of being a starter.

Bets to Place

Nah’Shon Hyland +4500

Now, I know what you’re thinking. Yes, Nah'Shon Hyland was only the 26th pick in the draft and isn’t a starter at this very moment, but he will be a starter sooner rather than later. He is arguably the best guard on the Nuggets' roster for as long as Jamal Murray is hurt. He is also the only guard on the team with the game to be a point guard that can attack the basket and create chances for others. I expect his usage to be high off the bench until he forces his way into the starting lineup. We’re getting some nice value at this number.

Sixth Man of the Year

Past 10 Winners

2021: Jordan Clarkson (UTA)
2020: Montrezl Harrel (LAC)
2019: Lou Williams (LAC)
2018: Lou Williams (LAC)
2017: Eric Gordon (HOU)
2016: Jamal Crawford (LAC)
2015: Lou Williams (TOR)
2014: Jamal Crawford (LAC)
2013: JR Smith (NYK)
2012: James Harden (OKC)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

The winner is definitely not a starter, but still plays a lot of minutes. On average, the Sixth Man of the Year winner plays 25 minutes per game (MPG), with several over 30 MPG.
The last 10 winners averaged 17-4-3.
The Sixth Man of the Year plays for a team that wins 65% or more of its games.
On average, the winner is in their 10th season. Only two players have won before their ninth season.
To summarize: We’re looking for a veteran player coming off the bench for one of the best teams in the league and scoring at a high rate.

Current Best SMOY Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Jordan Clarkson +600 & Joe Ingles +1300

Jazz teammates Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles were the top two vote-getters for this award last season. Clarkson was the favorite most of the season, but Ingles closed the gap late and almost won. They’re ideal candidates for this award, but as I’ve mentioned a few times before, you don’t want to back players who will split votes at such small numbers.

Tyler Herro +1000

This should be a bet and, hopefully, you grabbed some while the number was bigger. With Kyle Lowry in Miami, Tyler Herro moves to the bench where he should put up a lot of points. I wouldn’t hold it against you if you bet him at this price, but I would hold out and hope for at least +1500 early in the season.

Kevin Huerter +1600

Kevin Huerter may start too many games if Trae Young and De'Andre Hunter struggle with injuries again. If Huerter does get enough games off the bench, it will be even more difficult for him to put up the kind of stats voters like.

Tyrese Haliburton +1800

Another guy who might be a starter, Tyrese Haliburton is competing with too many other guards for the usage needed to garner attention.

Jordan Poole +2000

This was close to being a wager, but he could easily earn a starting spot as the Warriors wait for Klay Thompson’s return. I’ll be keeping an eye on him early in the season. If he is firmly on the bench, I may add him. I’ll be sure to let you know in Discord.

Dennis Schröder +2000

Another bet I might make later in the season, but Dennis Schröder could easily be a starter in Boston. He could be a strong candidate for this award if he’s willing to commit to a bench role

Bets to Place

Patty Mills +1500

I was surprised to confirm that Patty Mills has never won this award. Timing is everything, but he is in the mold of the player who wins this award. He comes off the bench for the Nets, plays on easily one of the best teams in the league and he will be expected to shoot the ball. This should be a fun season for Mills, who will benefit from not only attacking second units, but also from open looks created by his talented teammates. Mills checks off every box at a nice price.

Derrick Rose +1700

The Knicks might not be among the best teams in the league, but we saw what the New York media can do in award-voting with Coach of the Year last season. Derrick Rose checks every other box in a big way. He thrived off the bench for this team last year and was the second-most valuable player to the Knicks. If New York can be a top-six team in the East, that would go a long way for voters to reward the former MVP.

Carmelo Anthony +5000

The Lakers should be one of the best teams in the league and Carmelo Anthony should be one of the first players off the bench who can provide instant scoring. He took the role nicely last season in Portland and should have even more chances to score as part of this second unit. I’m happy to place a wager on a guy who checks all of our boxes at such a big price.

Defensive Player of the Year

Past 10 Winners

2021: Rudy Gobert (UTA)
2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
2019: Rudy Gobert (UTA)
2018: Rudy Gobert (UTA)
2017: Draymond Green (GSW)
2016: Kawhi Leonard (SAS)
2015: Kawhi Leonard (SAS)
2014: Joakim Noah (CHI)
2013: Marc Gasol (MEM)
2012: Tyson Chandler (NYK)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

They are all starters on winning teams. On average, the Defensive Player of the Year is on a team with a 68.7% win rate.
There are several multiple-time winners. There were only seven unique winners over the last 10 years. There have only been 12 unique winners over the last 20 years.
We finally found an award that centers actually win. Six of the last 10 winners were centers.
The DPOY averages 1.2 steals per game (SPG) and 1.6 blocks per game (BPG).
To summarize: We’re looking for a starter on a very good team who will get at least a steal and a block a game.

Current Best DPOY Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Rudy Gobert +340

I actually don’t mind this bet, but you’ll have a chance for several months to bet this number or something close to it. Shorter favorites in award markets can be dangerous. I’ll keep an eye on this, but I’m not betting on Rudy Gobert right now.

Ben Simmons +400

We don’t know where Ben Simmons will be this season, although he did show up to the 76ers facilities as preseason ended. His talent is undeniable, but will the media want to vote for him? I think not.

Anthony Davis +650

Anthony Davis is a very talented player and could win this award, but he generally refuses to play the center spot, which limits his impact and the level of respect he gets from some voters. I’d need at least 10-to-1 odds to wager on him to have his best defensive season and get enough votes to win.

Myles Turner +750

The Pacers are unlikely to be among the teams with the most wins in the league. There are also injury concerns with Myles Turner, plus the constant, looming possibility he is finally traded.

Joel Embiid +900

Missed games will always be an issue for Joel Embiid. If can play around 70 games, he’ll likely get consideration for this award, but it will be hard for him to pass other centers in the voting.

Bam Adebayo +1400

Bam Adebayo has been in the top five in voting for this award a few times. He has the potential to be the most impactful defensive player in the NBA. The price is a little too short, though, and Adebayo has struggled to make attention-grabbing highlight defensive plays.

Draymond Green +2000

This was close to a bet, but it’s too much to ask of the Warriors to win that many games and for Draymond Green to peak defensively at this stage of his career.

Bets to Place

Giannis Antetokounmpo +900

Giannis Antetokounmpo already won this award, but we know that’s not an issue. He is one of the best overall defenders and rim protectors in the league. He has a lot of talent, brings high intensity and plays more intelligently each year. He may rest on his laurels after winning a title, but I’m not expecting that. I have him as the runner-up favorite to win this award, so I’m happy to be him priced with the fifth-best odds.

Coach of the Year

Past 10 Winners

2021: Tom Thibodeau (NYK)
2020: Nick Nurse (TOR)
2019: Mike Budenholzer (MIL)
2018: Dwayne Casey (TOR)
2017: Mike D'Antoni (HOU)
2016: Steve Kerr (GSW)
2015: Mike Budenholzer (ATL)
2014: Gregg Popovich (SAS)
2013: George Karl (DEN)
2012: Tom Thibodeau (CHI)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

All but Tom Thibodeau last season coached a team with a top-five record in the league.
Each of the last 10 winners improved their teams' win rate season over season and went over their regular-season win total.
To summarize: We want a coach whose team will be one of the best in the league with an improved record year over year and can go over their regular-season win (RSW) total.

Bets to Avoid

Erik Spoelstra +950

The Miami Heat have a good chance to improve their record and I have them projected just over their RSW total, but there’s too small of a chance that they have one of the best records in the league to make a bet on Erik Spoelstra at this price.

Billy Donovan +1000

The Bulls have less than a 5% chance of being a top-five winning team in the NBA this season.

Monty Williams +1100 & Quin Snyder +1100

Monty Williams and Quin Snyder were the favorites back and forth all season until about a week left. Phoenix and Utah are strong candidates to be top-four in win rate, but it’s too hard for them to improve on last year’s success and go over their RSW total to bet on either at this number.

Steve Kerr +1100

Similar to Billy Donovan, but not as bad, I have the Warriors at just a 36% chance of being in the top five in win rate. We need a bigger number to back Steve Kerr.

Michael Malone +1400

Only a 24% chance of being a top-five team and an even smaller chance of improving the Nuggets' win rate season over season leaves Michael Malone off my betting ticket.

Jason Kidd +1400

This one is actually funnier than Russell Westbrook for MVP because I’ve been looking to bet on Jason Kidd to be the first NBA coach fired (if such a market exists). It’s been a few seasons since he’s been at the helm and he’s spent his media availability talking about how the Mavericks will shoot fewer three-pointers and get the ball to Kristaps Porzingis more in the post. Similar to Westbrook, please, please, please don’t bet on this.

Nate McMillan +1500

Sixteen percent of being top-five in wins is tough. Nate McMillan may also struggle to check the other two boxes as well.

Bets to Place

Steve Nash +850

The Nets have a 90% chance of being a top-five team, a 65% chance of improving their year-over-year record and a 57% chance of going over their RSW total. It is tough to win this as the coach of a super team, but Steve Nash is in his second year as a head coach, forced to manage the Kyrie Irving situation and the minutes of an older roster. That should be enough for media members to vote for someone they already love.

Frank Vogel +1300

The Lakers have a 65% chance of being a top-five team, an 85% chance of improving their year-over-year record and a 50% chance of going over their RSW total. Only one coach of LeBron James has won this award, but with the integration of so many new players and how easy it will be for the Lakers to improve upon last season, Frank Vogel looks great to me at this price.

Mike Budenholzer +2000

The Bucks have a 71% chance of being a top-five team, a 61% chance of improving their year-over-year record and a 45% chance of going over their RSW total. I have some concerns based on how Mike Budenholzer devalued the regular season to focus on playoff success last year, but Milwaukee will be great again, possibly even better than last year. This is a nice big number for us to bet.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter or subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.