NFL Week 9 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable. Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game that's about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I know that the majority of the casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 8 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 9.

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 9 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

Bye Weeks: Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Football Team

Jets @ Colts (-14)

Betting against a rookie head coach on Thursday night, especially on the road, is a +EV bet over the past few seasons. That's in play here with Robert Saleh and the Jets, but this is a big number. I'm not sure it's big enough for me to back a Mike White road start either, but it's one to watch.

Falcons @ Saints (-5)

I find it interesting the preseason line moved in the Falcons' favor. There's no team in the league I have as little feel for right now as I do for the New Orleans Saints, but I want to pump the breaks a bit on this 'Falcons are warming up' narrative. They enter Week 8 with a 3-3 record, with wins against the Giants, Jets and Dolphins. None of those wins were in convincing fashion, and they needed a last-second field goal to hold off the Dolphins after squandering a 13-point second-half lead. The Saints are getting healthy, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and I lean their way here with this under six points.

Broncos @ Cowboys (-7)

No way this number lasts. This is the CLV Play of The Week. I can't imagine a scenario, barring injury, where this line opens back up at less than seven. Fire the cannons.

Patriots @ Panthers (+2)

Bill Belichick has a history of using ghosts to defend Sam Darnold, and while we don't know if they'll be making the trip to Carolina in Week 9, I think he can scheme up something similar in this spot. This could also be the debut of Panthers new cornerback Stephon Gilmore, which makes for an interesting pre-game expose if you're into that sort of thing. I don't think this moves past three, though, and a Panthers' Week 8 win versus the Falcons paired with a New England loss against the Chargers could bring this closer to a pick. Watch this space.

Browns @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Bengals are 2-0 in the division, with road wins in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. A win here at home against the Browns would put them in the driver's seat for the AFC North just nine weeks into the season. After three straight on the road, this is Cincinnati's first home game since Week 5. This is already three in some spots, so an early Bengals lean would be wise to move on this 2.5. Otherwise, wait.

Bills @ Jaguars (+11)

We're seeing two-touchdown+ favorites every week these days, but I'm not sure I understand why this isn't one of them. What number would you need on the Jaguars to feel comfortable backing them against the top team in the AFC? I don't know about you, but for me, it's certainly not 11. I'm taking the Bills here before this moves to 14.5.

Chargers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The is a bit of coachspeak-ese, but I don't know what the identity of this Eagles team is. What do they do well? Statistically speaking, they limit big plays in their opponent's passing game while offensively running efficiently, albeit mostly through quarterback scrambles which muddy their overall efficiency metrics. The Eagles are in Detroit in Week 8, and the Lions are live to get their first win of the season. If that happens, that'll balloon this line up to six in a hurry.

Packers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

It's quite unusual to see the Chiefs laying less than a field goal at home. The Packers are under-manned in their Thursday night matchup against the Cardinals, but recency bias is a hell of a drug. If Green Bay struggles against the Cardinals and the Chiefs get on track against the Giants, the public will only remember what they saw last. This will steam up through the three. If your early lean is on the Chiefs, take this 2.5. If you like the Packers, you'll almost certainly get a better number.

Cardinals @ 49ers (+3)

We just saw the Cardinals struggle against the 49ers at home back in Week 5. Arizona limited Trey Lance and the San Francisco offense to just 10 points, but the Cardinals had their worst offensive output of the year as well, though it was enough to win. The arrow is pointing in different directions for these two clubs, but be careful laying points on the road in the second matchup of division rivals. An emphatic Cardinals win on Thursday night is only going to drive this line higher.

Titans @ Rams (-4.5)

The Rams have been double-digit favorites in three straight heading into this Sunday night matchup against the Titans. It didn't matter against the Chiefs in Week 8, but the Titans can only pull off the smoke-and-mirror defensive trick so many times before someone like Sean McVay exploits it. The Titans rank 22nd to 25th in key defensive metrics like DVOA, EPA and yards per drive allowed. They're also 31st in pressure rate. I don't think this line moves too much either way, but I lean the Rams for now.

Bears @ Steelers (-4.5)

Gross.

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