4for4 Betting Recap: Week 8
Welcome to the 4for4 football gambling recap! My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter and TJ Calkins. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win 1 unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than 1 unit.
With that being said, let's look at Week 8!
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet, skewing their props up for the week. The weekly and year-to-date records will include it but the analysis was removed since it carried so much of them this week. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 8: 9-7, 56.25%, 8.81 units
YTD: 90-66, 57.69%, 30.33 units
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan actually had a losing week when taking out the longshot he hit. He would have lost 0.45 units. I was wondering when Ryan would have a bad week, his last losing week overall was Week 3. The reason why I wonder this is because it is difficult to win each week betting with enough volume. Eventually, over the course of the NFL season, you just have 3-5 bad weeks of betting and ideally, your losses don’t ruin your season.
The upside this week is Ryan is now 50% on all RB props after that slow start. Ryan continues to do well on WR props, moving to 29-14 (67.44%), on the year for 12.63 units. Ryan also has a very high hit rate of 76.47% on team totals, which is completely unrealistic to sustain for the year.
Connor Allen
Week 8: 6-10, 37.5%, 3.13 units
YTD: 73-67, 52.14%, 9.32 units
Dan’s Analysis: This might have been Connor’s worse week gambling going back to last year. Connor can thank Elijah Mitchell for saving him from disaster this week. When you take out the Mitchell longshot, Connor would have lost 6.12 units this week. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good in gambling, and that is what happened. I am all for taking victory laps because gambling is hard to win at each week but if you take a victory lap, you better be ready to eat a dirt sandwich. Both Connor and Ryan got their victory laps with the longshot but the dirt sandwich is the rest of their picks this week.
The upside is that WR and QB props both continue to be money for Connor—60%+ for the year in each category!
Sam Hoppen
Week 8: 2-2, 50%, 0.1 units
YTD: 19-14, 57.58%, 5 units
Dan’s Analysis: I am going to sound like a broken record on Sam, but he is tough to give a deep dive on because of the small sample size. I don’t encourage him, or anyone, to be betting large volume if that isn’t your thing just because you want some results. That spells long-term disaster and I expect Sam to slowly grind it out.
If we take out the Elijah Mitchell prop, Sam lost 0.25 units. It doesn’t sound like much but losses are losses, just like profit is profit. Not much else this week for Sam.
Greg Smith
Week 8: 5-4, 55.56%, 0.55 units
YTD: 42-36, 53.85%, 3.25 units
Dan’s Analysis: Another guy I will sound like a broken record on, Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings, but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.
Something that should be stated in this article is that when you read the Flowbotics articles (or anyone’s articles), be careful of the stats they give you. My stats are measuring everything they do while the article stats just measure what the author put out the previous week(s). Greg has done well against the spread (ATS) this year after eight weeks and I expect that to improve as DVOA gets more data. Greg is now 55.56% ATS, which is a great year for professionals as ATS for NFL is by far the hardest market to win at.
Anthony Stalter
Week 8: 2-1, 66.67%, 0.9 units
YTD: 15-9, 62.5%, 6 units
TJ Calkins
Week 8: 0-3, 0%, -3.3 units
YTD: 6-12, 33.33%, -9.4 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
