Top 5 Matchups for Week 10

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.

Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.

Week 10 Matchups

Trevor Lawrence @ Indianapolis Colts

You love to see a good pass funnel defense for a young quarterback. Week 10 is the first of three games in which Lawrence faces some of the worst defenses against opposing quarterbacks, with the Colts being the worst at 31st in aFPA. Indy allows 274.56 passing yards, 2.56 touchdowns, and get 1.11 interceptions per game against QBs. Lawrence is no stranger to interceptions but this could be the week he gets multiple touchdown passes for the first time since Week 1.

Michael Carter vs. Buffalo Bills

Playing most skill position players against the Bills is usually a poor idea, but Michael Carter has a few things going against him, Week 10. First, Tevin Coleman is expected back. Second, in a game with the most negative of game scripts in Week 9, Carter saw one reception. Lastly, the Bills are top three in aFPA against all skill positions. Aside from Derrick Henry’s 143 rushing yards Week 6, the Bills have not allowed a running back to touch 70 yards on the ground. The Bills are also allowing only 3.25 receptions for 30 yards through the air to the position.

Secondary Chiefs Receivers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes’ production dip this season is one of the bigger stories. One large part of the dip is the offensive line’s inability to gel and protect Mahomes, but the other is the lack of production beyond Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Week 6 was the last time the receiving corps showed signs of life with four receivers collecting at least 46 yards. Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson are too unpredictable to trust against the Raiders’ 4th-ranked aFPA against opposing wideouts. Hill and Kelce account for 55.25% of Mahomes’ passing yards.

Dan Arnold @ Indianapolis Colts

I could have easily put Arnold with Lawrence but the tight end deserves his own flowers. Arnold has at least five targets the past four games and has topped out at 10 during the same time period. He has turned 30 targets into 20 receptions for 219 yards since Week 5 and now gets the #32 defense in aFPA to tight ends. Five tight ends have finished with double-digit fantasy points in full-PPR formats. Arnold is on track to be the sixth.

Deonte Harris @ Tennessee Titans

I like Harris if Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill starts for New Orleans Week 10. In Hill’s four-week run as a starter in 2020, Hill had at least 232 passing yards in three of four games, while Siemian targeted Harris the most Week 9. Harris has seen 15 targets in the past two games, more than any Saints receiver. The Titans are 30th in receiver aFPA, allowing 34.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Teams facing the Saints have keyed in on slowing down Alvin Kamara, allowing receivers such as Harris to flourish in the passing game. Harris had flirted with playing 50% of snaps prior to injury and Tre’Quan Smith’s return. He has seen just over 30% of snaps in two games since returning, but could be in line for a larger role with Michael Thomas out for the season and the team desperate for a slot presence in the passing game.